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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Clemson17% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upVirginia over North Carolina19% chance · won 16-3
  • Runner-upIdaho over Colorado State21% chance · won 31-29

Upsets

Thu, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado@West Virginia
21%
79%
24
35
✓
WVU −13.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Hawaii@Louisiana Tech
55%
45%
6
27
✗
HAW −2.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Utah State@BYU
12%
88%
17
35
✓
BYU −19.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@UAB
68%
32%
17
30
✗
USM −7.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#20Clemson@MarylandUpset
83%
17%
21
24
✗
CLEM −15.8
–
–
Final
Michigan@Michigan State
49%
51%
20
26
✓
MSU −0.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
50%
50%
31
28
✗
MINN −0.3
–
–
Final
#12Virginia Tech@Duke
86%
14%
34
26
✓
VT −17.4
–
–
Final
Virginia@North CarolinaUpset
19%
81%
16
3
✗
UNC −14.7
–
–
Final
#21USF@Syracuse
82%
18%
34
20
✓
USF −14.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Marshall
56%
44%
21
17
✓
ECU −2.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
28%
72%
17
16
✗
ARMY −9.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
47%
53%
37
30
✗
BALL −1.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
30%
70%
27
21
✗
PUR −9.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#14Iowa
14%
86%
21
24
✓
IOWA −18.0
–
–
Final
#5Alabama@Kentucky
80%
20%
38
20
✓
ALA −13.6
–
–
Final
#16Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
96%
4.1%
37
13
✓
CIN −28.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Eastern Michigan
63%
37%
24
12
✓
TEM −5.2
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
35%
65%
24
23
✗
ISU −6.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@Stanford
36%
64%
16
24
✓
STAN −6.1
–
–
Final
#19LSU@Georgia
50%
50%
20
13
✗
UGA −0.3
–
–
Final
Washington@Notre Dame
21%
79%
30
37
✓
ND −13.3
–
–
Final
Florida State@Boston College
49%
51%
21
28
✓
BC −0.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
36%
64%
24
30
✓
WAKE −6.0
–
–
Final
#11Penn State@Illinois
84%
16%
35
17
✓
PSU −16.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
66%
34%
20
13
✓
CMU −6.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@UCF
32%
68%
14
32
✓
UCF −7.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
44%
56%
13
16
✓
NAVY −2.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
37%
63%
3
38
✓
NIU −5.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#13Texas Tech
3.5%
96%
28
48
✓
TTU −30.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana-Monroe
45%
55%
35
48
✓
ULM −2.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
33%
67%
44
37
✗
BGSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Florida Atlantic
39%
61%
30
28
✗
FAU −4.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
55%
45%
28
63
✗
UNLV −2.1
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
38%
62%
28
17
✗
ASU −5.4
–
–
Final
#8Ohio State@Indiana
88%
12%
33
14
✓
OSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
63%
37%
23
7
✓
MISS −5.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Baylor
18%
82%
15
31
✓
BAY −15.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&MvsArkansas
64%
36%
19
47
✗
TA&M −5.8
–
–
Final
#24Tulsa@Rice
86%
14%
27
10
✓
TLSA −17.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Mississippi State
60%
40%
42
31
✓
GT −4.0
–
–
Final
#18Auburn@Tennessee
54%
46%
26
22
✓
AUB −1.5
–
–
Final
Houston@UTEPUpset
78%
22%
41
58
✗
HOU −12.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#9Oregon
2.3%
98%
6
52
✓
ORE −33.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado State@IdahoUpset
79%
21%
29
31
✗
CSU −13.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Louisville
75%
25%
35
10
✓
PITT −11.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
New Mexico State@San Diego State
31%
69%
17
34
✓
SDSU −8.2
–
–
Final
#7USC@#23California
61%
39%
30
3
✓
USC −4.5
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@Miami (FL)Upset
74%
26%
20
21
✗
OU −10.6
–
–
Final
SMU@#10TCU
3.7%
96%
14
39
✓
TCU −29.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Oct 4 · TBD UC Davis at #4 Boise State Boise State −59.6 >99%
Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at South Carolina South Carolina −39.3 99%