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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Iowa12% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upBaylor over Missouri20% chance · won 40-32
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Arkansas State21% chance · won 21-18

Upsets

Wed, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
50%
50%
30
29
✓
BGSU −0.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
#12Virginia Tech@East Carolina
74%
26%
16
3
✓
VT −11.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Temple
11%
89%
32
34
✓
TEM −18.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
7.3%
93%
6
50
✓
NIU −22.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Boise State@Louisiana Tech
92%
8.4%
45
35
✓
BOIS −22.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
76%
24%
31
28
✓
WIS −11.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
18%
82%
14
49
✓
MSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan
41%
59%
38
36
✗
MICH −3.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
26%
74%
35
32
✗
MINN −9.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#18Pittsburgh
6.6%
93%
10
37
✓
PITT −23.8
–
–
Final
UCF@#1Texas
1.5%
98%
3
35
✓
TEX −34.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@West Virginia
14%
86%
9
17
✓
WVU −16.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#19IowaUpset
12%
88%
17
10
✗
IOWA −18.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@#23Miami (FL)
18%
82%
17
52
✓
MIA −14.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Arkansas
29%
71%
16
33
✓
ARK −8.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
55%
44%
10
17
✗
KU −2.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
34%
66%
31
38
✓
NCSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Colorado
63%
37%
34
35
✗
TA&M −5.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@UAB
43%
57%
29
56
✓
UAB −2.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@MissouriUpset
20%
80%
40
32
✗
MIZ −13.1
–
–
Final
BYU@Wyoming
79%
21%
52
0
✓
BYU −13.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
35%
65%
23
21
✗
ND −5.6
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Rice@SMU
14%
86%
28
31
✓
SMU −16.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
4.3%
96%
7
48
✓
ARIZ −27.1
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@StanfordUpset
73%
27%
42
51
✗
ORE −10.0
–
–
Final
Washington@UCLA
33%
67%
23
24
✓
UCLA −6.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#16Georgia Tech
18%
82%
27
30
✓
GT −14.3
–
–
Final
#21Oklahoma State@Iowa State
65%
35%
34
8
✓
OKST −6.6
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
27%
73%
6
19
✓
UNC −9.4
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@#9Penn State
40%
60%
24
7
✗
PSU −3.4
–
–
Final
#17LSU@#4Alabama
24%
76%
15
24
✓
ALA −10.9
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
9.0%
91%
7
35
✓
AF −21.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
57%
43%
20
28
✗
KENT −3.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas StateUpset
21%
79%
21
18
✗
ARST −12.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@TulaneUpset
76%
24%
38
45
✗
UTEP −11.8
–
–
Final
#3TCU@San Diego State
96%
4.0%
55
12
✓
TCU −28.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas
52%
48%
33
6
✓
ULM −1.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
24%
76%
21
48
✓
MTSU −10.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Western Kentucky
94%
6.2%
40
20
✓
TROY −25.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#22Utah
2.7%
97%
14
45
✓
UTAH −30.6
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#2Florida
1.8%
98%
3
27
✓
FLA −33.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulsa
50%
50%
46
45
✗
HOU −0.4
–
–
Final
Florida State@#14Clemson
25%
75%
24
40
✓
CLEM −10.3
–
–
Final
#8USC@Arizona State
76%
24%
14
9
✓
USC −11.7
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@#15Nebraska
59%
41%
3
10
✗
OU −4.1
–
–
Final
UConn@#10Cincinnati
18%
82%
45
47
✓
CIN −14.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Colorado State@UNLV
43%
57%
16
35
✓
UNLV −2.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Hawaii
52%
48%
36
49
✗
USU −1.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Idaho
85%
15%
31
21
✓
FRES −17.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Nevada@San Jose State
75%
25%
62
7
✓
NEV −11.3
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Oregon State@#24CaliforniaUpset
33%
67%
31
14
✗
CAL −6.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@#20Tennessee
4.2%
96%
28
56
✓
TENN −27.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · 1:30 PM ET Furman at Auburn Auburn −41.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Georgia Georgia −55.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −46.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET Northern Arizona at #25 Ole Miss Ole Miss −45.6 >99%