The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 13

Wilder than 13% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockPurdue over Ohio State20% chance · won 26-18
  • Runner-upColorado over Kansas23% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upKentucky over Auburn28% chance · won 21-14

Upsets

Wed, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
62%
38%
10
16
✗
ARST −5.1
–
–

Thu, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#14Cincinnati@#19USF
48%
52%
34
17
✗
USF −1.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#8Boise State@#23Tulsa
61%
39%
28
21
✓
BOIS −4.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Louisville@UConn
17%
83%
25
38
✓
CONN −16.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
27%
73%
14
24
✓
MSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Clemson
33%
67%
3
38
✓
CLEM −7.5
–
–
Final
#4Oklahomavs#2Texas
43%
57%
13
16
✓
TEX −3.0
–
–
Final
#20Iowa@Wisconsin
55%
45%
20
10
✓
IOWA −2.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
59%
41%
31
17
✓
BGSU −3.8
–
–
Final
#9Ohio State@PurdueUpset
80%
20%
18
26
✗
OSU −13.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@Vanderbilt
61%
39%
34
10
✓
UGA −4.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Middle Tennessee
50%
50%
27
6
✗
MTSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Army@Temple
30%
70%
13
27
✓
TEM −8.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
12%
88%
7
28
✓
OHIO −19.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
15%
85%
0
10
✓
AF −17.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Nevada@Utah State
64%
36%
35
32
✓
NEV −5.8
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
53%
47%
45
26
✓
CAL −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#1Florida
10%
90%
20
23
✓
FLA −21.0
–
–
Final
#5USC@Notre Dame
71%
29%
34
27
✓
USC −9.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
29%
72%
20
52
✓
BC −9.5
–
–
Final
Rice@East Carolina
19%
81%
13
49
✓
ECU −14.5
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@#6Nebraska
31%
69%
31
10
✗
NEB −8.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#13Penn State
20%
80%
0
20
✓
PSU −13.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@West Virginia
17%
83%
7
24
✓
WVU −16.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Buffalo
32%
68%
17
21
✓
BUF −7.9
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
87%
13%
44
16
✓
HOU −18.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
64%
36%
34
23
✓
CMU −6.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Maryland
58%
42%
20
9
✓
UVA −3.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
57%
42%
28
6
✓
KENT −3.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana Tech
18%
82%
7
45
✓
LT −15.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#11TCU
8.4%
92%
6
44
✓
TCU −23.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Idaho
59%
41%
23
35
✗
HAW −3.6
–
–
Final
#15BYU@San Diego State
89%
11%
38
28
✓
BYU −20.1
–
–
Final
#7Virginia Tech@Georgia TechUpset
64%
36%
23
28
✗
VT −5.7
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
#16Kansas@ColoradoUpset
77%
23%
30
34
✗
KU −12.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Iowa State
46%
54%
10
24
✓
ISU −1.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
51%
49%
14
27
✗
ILL −0.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Western Kentucky
71%
29%
30
22
✓
UL −9.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Ole Miss
13%
87%
13
48
✓
MISS −19.0
–
–
Final
Troy@FIU
69%
31%
42
33
✓
TROY −8.1
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Kansas State
59%
41%
14
62
✗
TA&M −3.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
20%
80%
16
36
✓
USM −13.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
68%
32%
19
20
✗
NIU −7.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#25AuburnUpset
28%
72%
21
14
✗
AUB −10.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
44%
56%
38
43
✓
ARIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@UCF
76%
24%
27
7
✓
MIA −11.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#3Alabama
11%
89%
6
20
✓
ALA −20.8
–
–
Final
#18Missouri@Oklahoma StateUpset
49%
51%
17
33
✓
OKST −0.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
11%
89%
21
41
✓
FRES −20.6
–
–
Final
#22Utah@UNLV
81%
19%
35
15
✓
UTAH −14.7
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona State
33%
67%
17
24
✓
ASU −7.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21Pittsburgh@Rutgers
60%
40%
24
17
✓
PITT −4.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
50%
50%
44
40
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
78%
22%
38
35
✓
NAVY −13.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware State at Michigan Michigan −38.8 99%