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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Hampshire over Ball State10% chance · won 23-16
  • Runner-upSMU over UAB17% chance · won 35-33
  • Runner-upHouston over Oklahoma State19% chance · won 45-35

Upsets

Thu, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
46%
54%
27
30
✓
GT −0.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado@Toledo
55%
45%
38
54
✗
COLO −2.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
North Carolina@UConn
38%
62%
12
10
✗
CONN −4.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northwestern
12%
88%
24
27
✓
NU −18.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Indiana
57%
43%
19
23
✗
WMU −3.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan StateUpset
23%
77%
29
27
✗
MSU −11.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@Wake Forest
43%
57%
17
24
✓
WAKE −2.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#5Penn State
4.0%
96%
7
28
✓
PSU −26.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wisconsin
32%
68%
31
34
✓
WIS −6.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
29%
71%
35
19
✗
ARMY −8.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Buffalo
48%
52%
54
27
✗
BUF −0.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
45%
55%
35
3
✗
ISU −1.5
–
–
Final
Troy@#3Florida
7.4%
93%
6
56
✓
FLA −22.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@Virginia Tech
13%
87%
10
52
✓
VT −17.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Boston College
17%
83%
7
34
✓
BC −14.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#12Nebraska
16%
84%
9
38
✓
NEB −15.0
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
#22Notre Dame@MichiganUpset
52%
48%
34
38
✗
ND −1.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#9Oklahoma StateUpset
19%
81%
45
35
✗
OKST −13.1
–
–
Final
#23TCU@Virginia
79%
21%
30
14
✓
TCU −13.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington
5.6%
94%
23
42
✓
WASH −24.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
31%
69%
20
35
✓
WVU −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Navy
17%
83%
14
32
✓
NAVY −14.3
–
–
Final
#20BYU@Tulane
86%
14%
54
3
✓
BYU −16.8
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Wyoming
95%
5.2%
41
10
✓
TEX −25.7
–
–
Final
SMU@UABUpset
17%
83%
35
33
✗
UAB −14.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@#21TennesseeUpset
22%
78%
19
15
✗
TENN −11.4
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Mississippi State@Auburn
24%
76%
24
49
✓
AUB −10.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia
33%
67%
37
41
✓
UGA −6.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@LSU
27%
73%
9
23
✓
LSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Minnesota
51%
49%
13
20
✗
AF −0.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#6Missouri
17%
83%
20
27
✓
MIZ −14.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@North Texas
53%
47%
31
30
✓
OHIO −1.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Washington State
59%
41%
38
20
✓
HAW −3.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Louisiana
50%
50%
15
17
✓
KSU −0.5
–
–
Final
FIU@#10Alabama
5.7%
94%
14
40
✓
ALA −24.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Middle Tennessee
38%
62%
14
31
✓
MTSU −4.4
–
–
Final
UCF@Southern Miss
16%
84%
19
26
✓
USM −15.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#16Texas Tech
14%
86%
10
55
✓
TTU −16.7
–
–
Final
#25USF@Western Kentucky
89%
11%
35
13
✓
USF −19.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@UTEP
65%
35%
34
7
✓
KU −6.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Purdue@#17Oregon
25%
75%
36
38
✓
ORE −9.8
–
–
Final
#14Utah@San Jose State
87%
13%
24
14
✓
UTAH −18.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UNLV
50%
50%
23
21
✗
ORST −0.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Miami (OH)@#8Boise State
1.8%
98%
0
48
✓
BOIS −32.4
–
–
Final
#18Tulsa@New Mexico
77%
23%
44
10
✓
TLSA −12.1
–
–
Final
#1USC@#15Ohio State
67%
33%
18
15
✓
USC −7.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at #19 Arizona Arizona −43.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 8:30 PM ET Southern Utah vs San Diego State San Diego State −13.9 82%
Sat, Sep 12 · 5:30 PM ET Eastern Washington at #7 California California −44.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 5:00 PM ET Weber State vs Colorado State Colorado State −34.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Florida State Florida State −22.7 93%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET James Madison at Maryland Maryland −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET Murray State at NC State NC State −45.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Howard vs Rutgers Rutgers −22.5 93%
Sun, Sep 13 · TBD Prairie View A&M at New Mexico State New Mexico State −8.9 73%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Idaho State at #4 Oklahoma Oklahoma −63.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Illinois State at Illinois Illinois −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM ET Morgan State at Akron Akron −25.3 95%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Ball State Ball State −19.4 90%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at #13 Cincinnati Cincinnati −50.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −31.6 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −28.9 97%