The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Northern Illinois5.2% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upIowa over Penn State24% chance · won 21-10
  • Runner-upWyoming over UNLV25% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Thu, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Ole Miss@South CarolinaUpset
53%
47%
10
16
✗
MISS −1.2
–
–

Fri, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#13Missouri@Nevada
86%
14%
31
21
✓
MIZ −17.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
USF@#23Florida StateUpset
38%
62%
17
7
✗
FSU −5.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
48%
52%
7
24
✓
GT −1.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
47%
53%
35
24
✗
NU −1.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan
16%
84%
33
36
✓
MICH −16.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Temple
54%
46%
13
37
✗
BUF −1.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
43%
57%
30
38
✓
WIS −3.2
–
–
Final
#16LSU@Mississippi State
72%
28%
30
26
✓
LSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#15Cincinnati
18%
82%
20
28
✓
CIN −15.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#14Kansas
19%
81%
28
35
✓
KU −14.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Memphis
48%
52%
27
16
✗
MEM −0.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Boston College
40%
60%
24
27
✓
BC −4.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
8.2%
92%
14
26
✓
AF −23.2
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
UNLV@WyomingUpset
75%
25%
27
30
✗
UNLV −11.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Maryland
58%
42%
34
13
✓
RUTG −3.3
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
29%
71%
14
19
✓
ECU −9.1
–
–
Final
#17Pittsburgh@NC StateUpset
70%
30%
31
38
✗
PITT −8.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@#10Ohio State
11%
89%
0
30
✓
OSU −20.3
–
–
Final
#9TCU@#19Clemson
53%
47%
14
10
✓
TCU −1.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@#2Texas
4.2%
96%
7
64
✓
TEX −28.7
–
–
Final
#18Miami (FL)@#20Virginia Tech
44%
56%
7
31
✓
VT −2.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#6Alabama
14%
86%
7
35
✓
ALA −18.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
32%
68%
21
48
✓
CMU −8.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Navy
3.8%
96%
22
38
✓
NAVY −29.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Northern IllinoisUpset
5.2%
95%
34
31
✗
NIU −27.1
–
–
Final
#8California@#21Oregon
54%
46%
3
42
✗
CAL −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Florida Atlantic
38%
62%
27
25
✗
FAU −5.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
44%
56%
30
27
✗
ARST −2.7
–
–
Final
#1Florida@Kentucky
79%
21%
41
7
✓
FLA −13.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@BYU
20%
80%
23
42
✓
BYU −14.0
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Arizona State@Georgia
34%
66%
17
20
✓
UGA −6.8
–
–
Final
Army@Iowa State
31%
68%
10
31
✓
ISU −8.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#11Nebraska
8.2%
92%
0
55
✓
NEB −23.2
–
–
Final
#7Boise State@Bowling Green
78%
22%
49
14
✓
BOIS −12.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Texas A&M
25%
75%
19
56
✓
TA&M −11.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
65%
35%
37
21
✓
MTSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@FIU
43%
57%
41
31
✗
FIU −3.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
26%
74%
19
29
✓
KENT −11.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Tennessee
18%
82%
23
34
✓
TENN −15.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#22Auburn
11%
89%
30
54
✓
AUB −20.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Utah
15%
85%
14
30
✓
UTAH −17.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
45%
55%
37
32
✗
ORST −2.2
–
–
Final
Washington@Stanford
28%
72%
14
34
✓
STAN −10.0
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@HoustonUpset
58%
42%
28
29
✗
TTU −3.2
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
26%
74%
20
17
✗
UNM −10.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@#4USC
1.4%
99%
6
27
✓
USC −36.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Iowa@#5Penn StateUpset
24%
76%
21
10
✗
PSU −11.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Rice
58%
42%
36
17
✓
VAN −3.3
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Purdue
53%
46%
24
21
✓
ND −1.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 27 · TBD Cal Poly at San Jose State San Jose State −19.6 88%
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET Rhode Island at UConn UConn −39.7 99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Duke Duke −18.8 87%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at Syracuse Syracuse −27.4 95%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at #25 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −44.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at Tulsa Tulsa −20.9 90%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State vs Baylor Baylor −42.9 >99%
Sun, Sep 27 · TBD Southern Utah at Utah State Utah State −28.9 96%
Sat, Sep 26 · 2:10 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Kansas State Kansas State −37.9 99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET McNeese vs Tulane Tulane −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Hofstra at Western Michigan Western Michigan −24.3 93%