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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 16 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 7

Wilder than 7% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 4.9 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas State over TCU42% chance · won 30-6
  • Runner-upGeorgia Southern over Troy44% chance · won 28-24
  • Runner-upTemple over Navy45% chance · won 34-10

Fri, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#15Coloradovs#5Washington
29%
72%
10
41
✓
WASH −8.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Kansas State@TCU
42%
58%
30
6
✗
TCU −2.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia Southern
56%
44%
24
28
✗
TROY −2.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
45%
55%
34
10
✗
NAVY −1.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
44
58
✓
WKU −9.1
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma State@#8Oklahoma
24%
76%
20
38
✓
OU −10.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@South Alabama
26%
74%
28
35
✓
USA −9.9
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
60%
40%
30
3
✓
UL −4.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#22West Virginia
26%
74%
21
24
✓
WVU −9.8
–
–
Final
#1Alabamavs#20Florida
89%
11%
54
16
✓
ALA −19.7
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Idaho
44%
56%
12
37
✓
Idaho −1.8
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
89%
11%
36
14
✓
ARST −19.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
64%
36%
27
24
✓
SDSU −6.4
–
–
Final
#4Clemsonvs#16Virginia Tech
73%
27%
42
35
✓
CLEM −10.2
–
–
Final
#10Wisconsinvs#13Penn State
50%
50%
31
38
✓
WIS −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21Western MichiganvsOhio
88%
12%
29
23
✓
WMU −19.2
–
–