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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 86

Wilder than 86% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockPittsburgh over Clemson8.5% chance · won 43-42
  • Runner-upIowa over Michigan11% chance · won 14-13
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Georgia Southern19% chance · won 33-26

Upsets

Tue, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Western Michigan@Kent State
90%
9.6%
37
21
✓
WMU −21.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Akron
28%
72%
38
28
✗
AKR −9.1
–
–
Final
ToledovsNorthern Illinois
78%
22%
31
24
✓
TOL −12.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
40%
60%
48
41
✗
BALL −3.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
#19North Carolina@DukeUpset
72%
28%
27
28
✗
UNC −9.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia SouthernUpset
19%
81%
33
26
✗
GASO −13.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Arizona State
56%
44%
49
26
✓
UTAH −3.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boston College@#13Florida State
8.3%
92%
7
45
✓
FSU −21.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Baylor@#10Oklahoma
25%
75%
24
45
✓
OU −10.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#1Alabama
2.3%
98%
3
51
✓
ALA −31.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#22Florida
18%
82%
7
20
✓
FLA −14.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#16Tennessee
15%
85%
36
49
✓
TENN −15.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UCF
22%
78%
3
24
✓
UCF −11.7
–
–
Final
SMU@East Carolina
39%
61%
55
31
✗
ECU −4.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Navy
45%
55%
40
42
✓
NAVY −1.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
71%
29%
31
24
✓
ISU −9.4
–
–
Final
#23West Virginia@Texas
50%
50%
24
20
✗
WVU −0.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
25%
75%
0
49
✓
MSU −10.1
–
–
Final
#17Penn State@Indiana
75%
25%
45
31
✓
PSU −11.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
83%
17%
45
17
✓
NU −15.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Syracuse
65%
35%
35
20
✓
NCSU −6.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
70%
30%
35
24
✓
M-OH −8.9
–
–
Final
Rice@Charlotte
36%
64%
22
21
✗
CLT −5.2
–
–
Final
#25Miami (FL)@Virginia
78%
22%
34
14
✓
MIA −13.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia StateUpset
24%
76%
37
23
✗
GAST −10.8
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas State
12%
88%
22
41
✓
ARST −18.5
–
–
Final
ArmyvsNotre Dame
21%
79%
6
44
✓
ND −12.3
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@GeorgiaUpset
77%
23%
7
13
✗
AUB −12.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Missouri
50%
50%
17
26
✓
VAN −0.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
65%
35%
66
69
✗
WYO −6.7
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
19%
82%
35
63
✓
LT −13.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Western Kentucky
5.3%
95%
7
45
✓
WKU −25.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Old Dominion
43%
57%
35
51
✓
ODU −2.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#4ClemsonUpset
8.5%
92%
43
42
✗
CLEM −21.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#15Virginia TechUpset
20%
80%
30
20
✗
VT −12.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
5.4%
95%
18
30
✓
HOU −25.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Oklahoma State
28%
72%
44
45
✓
OKST −8.7
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Maryland
93%
7.0%
62
3
✓
OSU −24.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#12Wisconsin
6.8%
93%
3
48
✓
WIS −23.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Troy
54%
46%
24
28
✗
APP −2.0
–
–
Final
#18Stanford@Oregon
63%
37%
52
27
✓
STAN −5.9
–
–
Final
Idaho@Texas State
53%
47%
47
14
✓
Idaho −1.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Florida Atlantic
42%
58%
31
35
✓
FAU −2.6
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
#14Ole Miss@#11Texas A&M
38%
62%
29
28
✗
TA&M −4.5
–
–
Final
#9USC@#6Washington
30%
70%
26
13
✗
WASH −7.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Nebraska
31%
69%
17
24
✓
NEB −7.5
–
–
Final
#2Michigan@IowaUpset
89%
11%
13
14
✗
MICH −20.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UCLA
17%
84%
24
38
✓
UCLA −15.1
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
#20Colorado@Arizona
84%
16%
49
24
✓
COLO −16.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
35%
65%
46
49
✓
AF −5.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah State
45%
55%
24
21
✗
USU −1.4
–
–
Final
California@#21Washington State
19%
81%
21
56
✓
WSU −13.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Nevada
86%
14%
46
16
✓
SDSU −17.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#7LSU@Arkansas
76%
24%
38
10
✓
LSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Hawaii
91%
9.0%
52
16
✓
BOIS −21.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Marshall
70%
30%
17
42
✗
MTSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#5Louisville
5.2%
95%
12
44
✓
LOU −25.7
–
–
Final
USF@Memphis
53%
47%
49
42
✓
USF −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · 3:00 PM ET Southern Utah at BYU BYU −41.2 >99%