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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas over Texas7.3% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upFlorida over LSU19% chance · won 16-10
  • Runner-upHouston over Louisville22% chance · won 36-10

Upsets

Wed, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
55%
44%
31
24
✓
NIU −2.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
52%
48%
7
42
✗
KENT −1.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
44%
56%
20
27
✓
CMU −1.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#5Louisville@HoustonUpset
78%
22%
10
36
✗
LOU −12.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@TroyUpset
25%
75%
35
3
✗
TROY −10.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ball State@Toledo
9.0%
91%
19
37
✓
TOL −21.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
70%
30%
34
7
✓
MEM −8.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Boise State
5.0%
95%
25
42
✓
BOIS −25.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Kansas State@Baylor
38%
62%
42
21
✗
BAY −4.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia
6.0%
94%
21
35
✓
UGA −24.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@#13Texas A&M
3.6%
96%
10
23
✓
TA&M −28.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
46%
54%
24
44
✓
RICE −1.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@TCU
46%
54%
31
6
✗
TCU −1.2
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Michigan State
94%
6.3%
17
16
✓
OSU −24.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
76%
24%
28
0
✓
IOWA −11.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@Nebraska
19%
81%
7
28
✓
NEB −13.5
–
–
Final
#11Wisconsin@Purdue
96%
4.2%
49
20
✓
WIS −28.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
19%
81%
17
31
✓
GT −13.5
–
–
Final
#24Miami (FL)@NC State
58%
42%
27
13
✓
MIA −3.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Boston College
27%
73%
0
30
✓
BC −9.2
–
–
Final
#22Florida@#4LSUUpset
19%
81%
16
10
✗
LSU −13.8
–
–
Final
UMass@BYU
4.2%
96%
9
51
✓
BYU −27.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@Utah
29%
71%
30
28
✗
UTAH −8.3
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Charlotte
74%
26%
38
31
✓
MTSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia State
66%
34%
24
30
✗
GASO −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Appalachian State
4.5%
96%
17
42
✓
APP −26.8
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Duke@Pittsburgh
30%
70%
14
56
✓
PITT −8.1
–
–
Final
#20Virginia Tech@Notre Dame
48%
52%
34
31
✗
ND −0.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@#17Tennessee
13%
87%
37
63
✓
TENN −17.8
–
–
Final
#18Washington State@#19Colorado
45%
55%
24
38
✓
COLO −1.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
71%
29%
33
34
✗
SDSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#25Western Michigan
0.8%
99%
0
38
✓
WMU −38.2
–
–
Final
#12Florida State@Syracuse
88%
12%
45
14
✓
FSU −18.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulane
84%
16%
31
0
✓
TEM −16.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
66%
34%
10
66
✗
TTU −6.9
–
–
Final
Texas@KansasUpset
93%
7.3%
21
24
✗
TEX −23.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#3Michigan
3.1%
97%
10
20
✓
MICH −29.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
49%
51%
12
29
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Utah State@Nevada
61%
39%
37
38
✗
USU −4.8
–
–
Final
Navy@East Carolina
70%
30%
66
31
✓
NAVY −8.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@New Mexico State
39%
61%
10
50
✓
NMSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#14Stanford@California
78%
22%
45
31
✓
STAN −12.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@North Texas
67%
33%
23
29
✗
USM −7.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Florida Atlantic
76%
24%
42
24
✓
ODU −11.6
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Arizona State@#7Washington
6.9%
93%
18
44
✓
WASH −23.3
–
–
Final
#15Ole Miss@VanderbiltUpset
77%
23%
17
38
✗
MISS −12.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UCF
46%
54%
35
20
✗
UCF −1.2
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma@#23West Virginia
57%
43%
56
28
✓
OU −3.1
–
–
Final
#16Penn State@Rutgers
91%
8.9%
39
0
✓
PSU −21.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
34%
66%
31
49
✓
CSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
36%
64%
17
42
✓
ORST −5.3
–
–
Final
#9USC@UCLA
67%
33%
36
14
✓
USC −7.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Jose State
75%
25%
41
38
✓
AF −11.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Arkansas@Mississippi State
50%
50%
58
42
✗
ARK −0.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
47%
53%
14
13
✗
FRES −0.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@FIU
60%
40%
14
31
✗
MRSH −4.4
–
–
Final
#6Clemson@Wake Forest
91%
9.1%
35
13
✓
CLEM −21.8
–
–
Final
USF@SMU
73%
27%
35
27
✓
USF −10.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 19 · 12:00 PM ET Morgan State at Army Army −49.0 >99%
Sun, Nov 20 · TBD Chattanooga at #1 Alabama Alabama −65.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 7:30 PM ET Alabama A&M at #8 Auburn Auburn −68.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 4:30 PM ET Austin Peay at Kentucky Kentucky −48.9 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 4:00 PM ET Western Carolina at South Carolina South Carolina −41.0 >99%
Sat, Nov 19 · 3:30 PM ET The Citadel at #21 North Carolina North Carolina −43.4 >99%
Sun, Nov 20 · TBD Presbyterian at South Alabama South Alabama −37.3 99%