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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 16.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNavy over Houston20% chance · won 46-40
  • Runner-upWashington State over Stanford21% chance · won 42-16
  • Runner-upWyoming over Air Force24% chance · won 35-26

Upsets

Thu, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Georgia Southern@Arkansas State
72%
28%
26
27
✗
GASO −9.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#4Clemson@Boston College
88%
12%
56
10
✓
CLEM −19.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@New Mexico
85%
15%
49
21
✓
BOIS −17.3
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana Tech
52%
48%
52
55
✗
WKU −0.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Memphis
37%
63%
27
34
✓
MEM −5.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Cincinnati@UConn
52%
48%
9
20
✗
CIN −0.9
–
–
Final
#25Notre Dame@NC StateUpset
53%
47%
3
10
✗
ND −1.0
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@Mississippi State
61%
39%
38
14
✓
AUB −4.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTSA
74%
26%
32
55
✗
USM −10.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@USF
15%
85%
22
38
✓
USF −17.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas
91%
9.1%
24
23
✓
TCU −22.0
–
–
Final
Texasvs#11Oklahoma
29%
71%
40
45
✓
OU −9.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
55%
45%
14
7
✓
IOWA −1.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@Penn State
46%
54%
14
38
✓
PSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Pittsburgh
44%
56%
34
37
✓
PITT −2.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
25%
75%
24
30
✓
OHIO −11.5
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
22%
78%
13
35
✓
AKR −13.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
86%
14%
35
20
✓
TOL −17.8
–
–
Final
#14Houston@NavyUpset
80%
20%
40
46
✗
HOU −13.8
–
–
Final
Army@Duke
46%
54%
6
13
✓
DUKE −1.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Michigan State
46%
54%
31
14
✗
MSU −1.8
–
–
Final
#7Tennessee@#10Texas A&M
44%
56%
38
45
✓
TA&M −2.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@WyomingUpset
76%
24%
26
35
✗
AF −11.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
28%
72%
21
24
✓
CMU −10.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
54%
46%
44
20
✓
KENT −1.7
–
–
Final
#17Virginia Tech@#20North Carolina
46%
54%
34
3
✗
UNC −1.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
16%
84%
31
38
✓
OKST −16.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@#2Ohio State
2.4%
98%
17
38
✓
OSU −32.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
27%
73%
34
31
✗
ILL −10.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Georgia State
36%
64%
21
41
✓
GAST −6.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
47%
53%
13
20
✓
UK −1.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#19USC
28%
72%
17
21
✓
USC −9.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
37%
63%
34
17
✗
SJSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
6.4%
94%
30
45
✓
WMU −25.3
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
#1Alabama@Arkansas
87%
13%
49
30
✓
ALA −18.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
41%
59%
22
27
✓
NEV −4.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@North Texas
72%
28%
21
38
✗
MRSH −9.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Wake Forest
33%
67%
9
28
✓
WAKE −7.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas State
39%
61%
38
44
✓
KSU −4.6
–
–
Final
#3Michigan@Rutgers
94%
5.6%
78
0
✓
MICH −26.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana-Monroe
28%
72%
34
31
✗
ULM −9.9
–
–
Final
#9Washington@Oregon
70%
30%
70
21
✓
WASH −8.4
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
70%
30%
44
47
✗
CAL −8.8
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Arizona@Utah
28%
72%
23
36
✓
UTAH −10.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
56%
44%
24
31
✗
USU −2.6
–
–
Final
#21UCLA@Arizona StateUpset
64%
36%
20
23
✗
UCLA −5.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@#12StanfordUpset
21%
79%
42
16
✗
STAN −13.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
22%
78%
7
26
✓
SDSU −12.9
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UMass@Old Dominion
31%
68%
16
36
✓
ODU −8.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
24%
76%
40
43
✓
TLSA −11.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Charlotte@Florida Atlantic
29%
71%
28
23
✗
FAU −9.4
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
58%
42%
28
14
✓
UGA −3.4
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
FIU@UTEP
45%
55%
35
21
✗
UTEP −2.0
–
–
Final
#15Florida State@#23Miami (FL)
50%
50%
20
19
✓
PK
–
–