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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 83

Wilder than 83% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Texas over Army10% chance · won 35-18
  • Runner-upSMU over Houston11% chance · won 38-16
  • Runner-upPenn State over Ohio State14% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Thu, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#25Miami (FL)@#18Virginia Tech
37%
63%
16
37
✓
VT −4.7
–
–
Final
Troy@South Alabama
72%
28%
28
21
✓
TROY −9.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
BYU@Boise State
36%
64%
27
28
✓
BOIS −5.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@Temple
59%
41%
30
46
✗
USF −4.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Oregon@California
48%
52%
49
52
✓
CAL −0.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
12%
88%
3
42
✓
SDSU −18.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
North Texas@ArmyUpset
10%
90%
35
18
✗
ARMY −20.0
–
–
Final
UMass@South Carolina
11%
89%
28
34
✓
SC −19.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
22%
78%
17
31
✓
TOL −11.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
35%
65%
40
26
✗
BGSU −5.8
–
–
Final
NC State@#7Louisville
18%
82%
13
54
✓
LOU −14.1
–
–
Final
UCF@UConn
60%
40%
24
16
✓
UCF −4.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
90%
9.8%
44
20
✓
OKST −21.1
–
–
Final
Texas@Kansas State
49%
51%
21
24
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Minnesota
16%
84%
32
34
✓
MINN −15.5
–
–
Final
#15Wisconsin@Iowa
62%
38%
17
9
✓
WIS −5.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
32%
68%
14
24
✓
NU −6.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
43%
57%
28
20
✗
BC −2.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
54%
46%
14
10
✓
OHIO −2.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Air ForceUpset
15%
85%
34
27
✗
AF −16.1
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Colorado@#19StanfordUpset
36%
64%
10
5
✗
STAN −5.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Ball State
49%
51%
35
25
✗
AKR −0.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia
78%
22%
35
14
✓
UNC −13.0
–
–
Final
#8Texas A&M@#1Alabama
15%
85%
14
33
✓
ALA −16.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Northern Illinois
17%
83%
7
44
✓
NIU −14.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#23Western Michigan
4.3%
96%
31
45
✓
WMU −27.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Navy
52%
48%
28
42
✗
MEM −1.4
–
–
Final
TCU@#22West Virginia
30%
70%
10
34
✓
WVU −8.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#3Michigan
1.6%
98%
8
41
✓
MICH −34.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#16Nebraska
3.9%
96%
14
27
✓
NEB −27.9
–
–
Final
Idaho@Appalachian State
4.8%
95%
19
37
✓
APP −26.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
23%
77%
27
50
✓
TLSA −11.3
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Missouri
34%
66%
51
45
✗
MIZ −5.9
–
–
Final
Utah@UCLA
32%
68%
52
45
✗
UCLA −7.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
54%
46%
42
23
✓
CSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@MarshallUpset
19%
81%
27
24
✗
MRSH −13.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#9Auburn
22%
78%
3
56
✓
AUB −11.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#6Washington
3.1%
97%
17
41
✓
WASH −29.5
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@FIU
85%
15%
44
24
✓
LT −17.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Western Kentucky
24%
76%
24
59
✓
WKU −11.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@UTSAUpset
16%
84%
52
49
✗
UTSA −15.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
44%
56%
19
31
✓
CIN −2.1
–
–
Final
#21Houston@SMUUpset
89%
11%
16
38
✗
HOU −20.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas State
52%
48%
27
3
✓
UL −1.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Kentucky
58%
42%
38
40
✗
MSST −3.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Maryland
41%
59%
17
28
✓
MD −3.3
–
–
Final
#10Ole Miss@#5LSU
34%
66%
21
38
✓
LSU −6.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@New Mexico
26%
74%
17
59
✓
UNM −10.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#24Washington State@Arizona State
64%
36%
37
32
✓
WSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
22%
78%
20
38
✓
USU −11.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Nevada
57%
43%
42
34
✓
WYO −3.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#11Oklahoma@Texas Tech
77%
23%
66
59
✓
OU −12.2
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Penn StateUpset
86%
14%
21
24
✗
OSU −17.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@New Mexico State
91%
9.1%
22
19
✓
GASO −21.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET Tennessee State at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −24.4 94%
Sat, Oct 22 · 3:30 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Rice Rice −19.7 90%
Sat, Oct 22 · 3:30 PM ET UT Martin at Georgia State Georgia State −24.0 94%