The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Virginia Tech9.7% chance · won 31-17
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Air Force22% chance · won 45-40
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Georgia24% chance · won 17-16

Upsets

Thu, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana
82%
18%
24
0
✓
APP −15.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Duke@#5Louisville
6.3%
94%
14
24
✓
LOU −25.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
77%
23%
17
3
✓
SDSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@BYU
40%
60%
21
28
✓
BYU −4.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Vanderbilt@GeorgiaUpset
24%
76%
17
16
✗
UGA −12.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#4Clemson
13%
87%
17
24
✓
CLEM −19.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#13Oklahoma
25%
75%
17
38
✓
OU −11.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Texas Tech
52%
48%
48
17
✓
WVU −0.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Rutgers
44%
56%
24
7
✗
RUTG −2.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Maryland
38%
62%
31
10
✗
MD −5.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Purdue
82%
18%
49
35
✓
IOWA −15.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia Tech
25%
75%
24
35
✓
GT −11.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia
67%
33%
45
31
✓
PITT −7.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
29%
71%
27
20
✗
OHIO −9.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
55%
45%
14
18
✗
KENT −1.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
52%
48%
44
43
✓
WKU −0.6
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Kansas@#22Baylor
4.0%
96%
7
49
✓
BAY −29.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UMass
76%
24%
56
28
✓
LT −11.4
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#10Tennessee
70%
30%
49
10
✓
ALA −8.5
–
–
Final
#17USC@Arizona
77%
23%
48
14
✓
USC −11.9
–
–
Final
New MexicovsAir ForceUpset
22%
78%
45
40
✗
AF −12.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Buffalo
74%
26%
31
21
✓
BALL −10.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
6.9%
93%
35
42
✓
TOL −24.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
60%
40%
34
28
✓
CMU −4.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
76%
24%
41
0
✓
WMU −11.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#14Florida State
15%
85%
6
17
✓
FSU −17.4
–
–
Final
#16Nebraska@Indiana
75%
25%
27
22
✓
NEB −11.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
46%
54%
54
40
✗
MSU −1.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#21Miami (FL)Upset
38%
62%
20
13
✗
MIA −5.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Troy
19%
81%
21
31
✓
TROY −14.8
–
–
Final
#12Virginia Tech@SyracuseUpset
90%
9.7%
17
31
✗
VT −21.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@#20Florida
24%
76%
14
40
✓
FLA −12.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Oregon State
73%
27%
19
14
✓
UTAH −10.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
44%
56%
23
55
✓
Idaho −2.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Charlotte
54%
46%
27
26
✓
FIU −1.4
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#9Ole Miss@ArkansasUpset
71%
29%
30
34
✗
MISS −9.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Marshall
25%
75%
21
27
✓
MRSH −11.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Rice
67%
33%
14
13
✓
UTSA −7.2
–
–
Final
UConn@USF
13%
87%
27
42
✓
USF −18.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#18Houston
13%
87%
31
38
✓
HOU −19.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas
17%
83%
6
27
✓
TEX −15.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
45%
55%
7
17
✓
ARST −2.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana-Monroe
43%
57%
34
40
✓
ULM −2.9
–
–
Final
#19Stanford@Notre Dame
51%
49%
17
10
✓
STAN −0.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#7LSU
4.9%
95%
10
45
✓
LSU −27.5
–
–
Final
Temple@UCF
49%
51%
26
25
✗
UCF −0.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Colorado State@#23Boise State
7.1%
93%
23
28
✓
BOIS −24.4
–
–
Final
#24UCLA@#25Washington State
46%
54%
21
27
✓
WSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
50%
50%
10
14
✓
SJSU −0.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
47%
53%
41
38
✗
HAW −1.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@Tulane
78%
22%
24
14
✓
MEM −12.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Arizona State@Colorado
36%
64%
16
40
✓
COLO −5.9
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#15Wisconsin
75%
25%
30
23
✓
OSU −10.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 15 · 12:00 PM ET Lafayette at Army Army −22.3 91%