Week 1 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 87 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.0 expected

Biggest shockRichmond over Virginia0.8% chance · won 37-20
Runner-upEastern Washington over Washington State3.2% chance · won 45-42
Runner-upNorthern Iowa over Iowa State4.1% chance · won 25-20

Upsets

South Alabama 21, Mississippi State 20South Alabama won; the model gave them 7% before kickoff
Oklahoma 23, Houston 33#4 Oklahoma lost to unranked Houston
LSU 14, Wisconsin 16Wisconsin won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
Texas State 56, Ohio 54Texas State won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff

Fri, Aug 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final

Hawaiivs

California

14%
86%

31
51

✓

CAL −16.3

–

Thu, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final

Charlotte@

#23Louisville

4.0%
96%

14
70

✓

LOU −26.8

–

Final

Tulane@

Wake Forest

20%
80%

3
7

✓

WAKE −12.7

–

Final

Appalachian State@

#6Tennessee

13%
87%

13
20

✓

TENN −16.8

–

Final

Indiana@

FIU

62%
38%

34
13

✓

IU −5.2

–

Final

Oregon State@

Minnesota

27%
73%

23
30

✓

MINN −9.2

–

Fri, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final

Army@

Temple

25%
75%

28
13

✗

TEM −9.8

–

Final

Ball State@

Georgia State

48%
52%

31
21

✗

GAST −0.4

–

Final

Kansas State@

#12Stanford

15%
85%

13
26

✓

STAN −15.6

–

Final

Toledo@

Arkansas State

53%
47%

31
10

✓

TOL −1.7

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

South Carolina@

Vanderbilt

48%
52%

13
10

✗

VAN −0.3

–

Final

Rice@

Western Kentucky

17%
83%

14
46

✓

WKU −14.3

–

Sat, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

Georgia Techvs

Boston College

60%
40%

17
14

✓

GT −4.3

–

Final

South Alabama@

Mississippi StateUpset

6.9%
93%

21
20

✗

MSST −22.7

–

Final

Missouri@

#25West Virginia

28%
72%

11
26

✓

WVU −8.4

–

Final

Boise State@

Louisiana

78%
22%

45
10

✓

BOIS −12.4

–

Final

Hawaii@

#13Michigan

2.5%
98%

3
63

✓

MICH −30.3

–

Final

Bowling Green@

#5Ohio State

9.1%
91%

10
77

✓

OSU −20.3

–

Final

Western Michigan@

Northwestern

34%
66%

22
21

✗

NU −5.9

–

Final

#4Oklahomavs

HoustonUpset

73%
27%

23
33

✗

OU −9.9

–

Final

Rutgers@

#17Washington

17%
83%

13
48

✓

WASH −14.3

–

Afternoon 7 games

Final

#3LSUvs

WisconsinUpset

79%
21%

14
16

✗

LSU −13.0

–

Final

#15UCLA@

#18Texas A&M

42%
58%

24
31

✓

TA&M −2.4

–

Final

Kent State@

Penn State

7.9%
92%

13
33

✓

PSU −21.6

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

Iowa

9.6%
90%

21
45

✓

IOWA −19.8

–

Final

Texas State@

OhioUpset

24%
76%

56
54

✗

OHIO −10.6

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@

#24Arkansas

17%
83%

20
21

✓

ARK −14.5

–

Final

#11Georgiavs

#21North Carolina

60%
40%

33
24

✓

UGA −4.4

–

Prime time 5 games

Final

San Jose State@

Tulsa

41%
59%

10
45

✓

TLSA −3.0

–

Final

SMU@

North Texas

72%
28%

34
21

✓

SMU −9.6

–

Final

UMass@

Florida

7.4%
93%

7
24

✓

FLA −22.1

–

Final

Southern Miss@

Kentucky

31%
69%

44
35

✗

UK −7.2

–

Final

#2Clemson@

#14Auburn

61%
39%

19
13

✓

CLEM −4.7

–

Late night 2 games

Final

BYUvs

Arizona

52%
48%

18
16

✓

BYU −1.4

–

Final

Northern Illinois@

Wyoming

71%
29%

34
40

✗

NIU −8.9

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Colorado Statevs

Colorado

36%
64%

7
44

✓

COLO −5.2

–

Sun, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

#10Notre Dame@

#20Texas

53%
47%

47
50

✗

ND −1.5

–

Time TBD 3 games

Final

#9USCvs

#1Alabama

38%
62%

6
52

✓

ALA −4.2

–

Final

Fresno State@

#22Nebraska

7.3%
93%

10
43

✓

NEB −22.2

–

Final

New Mexico State@

UTEP

29%
71%

22
38

✓

UTEP −8.1

–

Tue, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#8Ole Missvs

#7Florida State

48%
52%

34
45

✓

FSU −0.2

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Northwestern State at #19 Baylor	Baylor −44.7	>99%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD	Northern Iowa at Iowa State	Iowa State −26.8	96%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD	Southern Utah at Utah	Utah −34.9	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 11:00 PM ET	Northern Arizona at Arizona State	Arizona State −43.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 5:00 PM ET	UC Davis at #16 Oregon	Oregon −47.7	>99%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD	Eastern Washington at Washington State	Washington State −28.6	97%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD	Weber State at Utah State	Utah State −32.2	98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 10:00 PM ET	Jackson State vs UNLV	UNLV −18.7	89%
Sat, Sep 3 · 2:00 PM ET	Abilene Christian at Air Force	Air Force −33.4	98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 9:00 PM ET	South Dakota at New Mexico	New Mexico −28.1	97%
Fri, Sep 2 · 9:30 PM ET	Cal Poly at Nevada	Nevada −27.7	96%
Sat, Sep 3 · 8:30 PM ET	New Hampshire vs San Diego State	San Diego State −35.7	99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Presbyterian at Central Michigan	Central Michigan −39.8	>99%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	UAlbany at Buffalo	Buffalo −20.6	91%
Fri, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	Mississippi Valley State at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan −17.7	88%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:30 PM ET	VMI at Akron	Akron −37.9	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	Southern Illinois at Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic −22.8	93%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Alabama A&M at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee −37.0	99%
Sun, Sep 4 · 3:30 PM ET	Hampton at Old Dominion	Old Dominion −13.4	82%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Alabama State at UTSA	UTSA −13.8	82%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET	William & Mary at NC State	NC State −34.1	99%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Colgate at Syracuse	Syracuse −36.5	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	North Carolina Central at Duke	Duke −42.7	>99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 1:30 PM ET	Villanova at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −37.3	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET	Richmond at Virginia	Virginia −37.7	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:30 PM ET	Liberty at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech −13.6	82%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	UT Martin at Cincinnati	Cincinnati −33.3	98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Maine at UConn	UConn −33.2	98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	South Carolina State at UCF	UCF −16.9	87%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	Western Carolina at East Carolina	East Carolina −26.8	96%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Towson at USF	USF −33.2	98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Memphis	Memphis −37.8	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET	Fordham at Navy	Navy −33.9	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET	Eastern Kentucky at Purdue	Purdue −27.0	96%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Kansas	Kansas −23.4	94%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET	SE Louisiana at Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State −45.8	>99%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD	South Dakota State at TCU	TCU −40.9	>99%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD	Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech	Texas Tech −41.8	>99%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Furman at Michigan State	Michigan State −40.9	>99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET	Murray State at Illinois	Illinois −37.3	99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET	Howard at Maryland	Maryland −41.8	>99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	Florida A&M at Miami (FL)	Miami (FL) −42.6	>99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 9:00 PM ET	Montana State at Idaho	Idaho −1.8	56%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	Savannah State at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern −45.4	>99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Southern at Louisiana-Monroe	Louisiana-Monroe −22.6	93%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET	Austin Peay at Troy	Troy −31.9	98%