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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 24

Wilder than 24% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 16.8 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Alabama over San Diego State19% chance · won 42-24
  • Runner-upWyoming over Colorado State29% chance · won 38-17
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Iowa29% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Kansas@Texas Tech
9.8%
90%
19
55
✓
TTU −21.5
–
–

Fri, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Stanford@#17Washington
60%
40%
6
44
✗
STAN −4.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Toledo@BYU
48%
52%
53
55
✓
BYU −1.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@#13Houston
5.8%
94%
14
42
✓
HOU −26.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#18Baylor@Iowa State
86%
14%
45
42
✓
BAY −18.2
–
–
Final
#24Notre DamevsSyracuse
84%
16%
50
33
✓
ND −16.1
–
–
Final
#20Florida@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
13
6
✓
FLA −10.3
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
46%
54%
47
29
✗
ECU −1.7
–
–
Final
SMU@Temple
25%
75%
20
45
✓
TEM −11.2
–
–
Final
#25Texas@Oklahoma StateUpset
56%
44%
31
49
✗
TEX −2.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#2Ohio State
1.9%
98%
0
58
✓
OSU −34.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
29%
71%
38
31
✗
IOWA −9.2
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
50%
50%
35
21
✗
GT −0.2
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Appalachian State
12%
88%
3
17
✓
APP −19.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
29%
71%
34
20
✗
DUKE −9.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Boston College
13%
87%
3
35
✓
BC −18.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Colorado
22%
78%
6
47
✓
COLO −13.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
62%
38%
17
7
✓
OHIO −5.0
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
43%
57%
28
25
✗
BGSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@UMass
49%
51%
31
24
✗
MASS −0.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#14Auburn
1.7%
98%
7
58
✓
AUB −35.3
–
–
Final
#7Tennessee@Georgia
74%
26%
34
31
✓
TENN −10.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
44%
56%
14
28
✓
AF −2.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
68%
32%
31
27
✓
AKR −7.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
34%
66%
31
24
✗
BALL −7.1
–
–
Final
#22North Carolina@#12Florida State
34%
66%
37
35
✗
FSU −6.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
34%
66%
16
33
✓
NCSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@West Virginia
40%
60%
16
17
✓
WVU −4.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Maryland
22%
78%
7
50
✓
MD −13.2
–
–
Final
#19Wisconsin@#3Michigan
21%
79%
7
14
✓
MICH −13.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@#15Nebraska
8.2%
92%
16
31
✓
NEB −23.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Penn State
38%
62%
26
29
✓
PSU −5.2
–
–
Final
#8Texas A&M@South Carolina
82%
18%
24
13
✓
TA&M −15.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico
38%
62%
41
48
✓
UNM −5.2
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@TCU
62%
38%
52
46
✓
OU −5.0
–
–
Final
Troy@Idaho
92%
8.5%
34
13
✓
TROY −22.7
–
–
Final
Utah@California
52%
48%
23
28
✗
UTAH −0.9
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Charlotte
68%
32%
52
17
✓
ODU −7.5
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Kentucky@#1Alabama
2.1%
98%
6
34
✓
ALA −33.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@#10Ole Miss
19%
81%
28
48
✓
MISS −14.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
62%
38%
49
10
✓
WMU −5.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
50%
50%
31
33
✗
PK
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
12%
88%
7
28
✓
LT −19.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
81%
19%
30
13
✓
MTSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Southern Miss
9.7%
90%
28
44
✓
USM −21.7
–
–
Final
USF@Cincinnati
63%
37%
45
20
✓
USF −5.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@#9LSU
18%
82%
7
42
✓
LSU −15.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Pittsburgh
19%
80%
27
43
✓
PITT −14.3
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#21USC
28%
72%
20
41
✓
USC −10.0
–
–
Final
Oregon@Washington State
58%
42%
33
51
✗
ORE −3.5
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Utah State@Boise State
12%
88%
10
21
✓
BOIS −19.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
29%
71%
38
17
✗
CSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@#23UCLA
19%
82%
24
45
✓
UCLA −15.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
51%
49%
20
45
✗
FRES −0.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
67%
33%
17
38
✗
NEV −7.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
San Diego State@South AlabamaUpset
81%
19%
24
42
✗
SDSU −14.4
–
–
Final
#4Louisville@#5Clemson
47%
53%
36
42
✓
CLEM −1.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
59%
41%
21
24
✗
MSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@New Mexico State
71%
29%
31
37
✗
UL −8.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 1 · 12:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Arkansas Arkansas −45.3 >99%
Sat, Oct 1 · 7:00 PM ET Houston Christian at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −25.1 93%
Sat, Oct 1 · 7:30 PM ET Incarnate Word at Texas State Texas State −10.4 73%