The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 79

Wilder than 79% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Toledo13% chance · won 31-26
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Akron15% chance · won 41-20
  • Runner-upWyoming over Boise State15% chance · won 30-28

Upsets

Thu, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
#14Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
64%
36%
39
36
✓
VT −6.1
–
–
Final
Akron@BuffaloUpset
86%
14%
20
41
✗
AKR −17.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@ToledoUpset
13%
87%
31
26
✗
TOL −17.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern
60%
40%
34
10
✓
APP −4.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
California@#13USC
17%
83%
24
45
✓
USC −14.8
–
–

Fri, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@USF
32%
68%
45
52
✓
USF −7.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air Force@Fresno State
76%
24%
31
21
✓
AF −11.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Kentucky@Missouri
39%
61%
35
21
✗
MIZ −4.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central MichiganUpset
22%
78%
27
24
✗
CMU −11.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
29%
71%
35
38
✓
GT −8.5
–
–
Final
#6Louisville@Virginia
95%
5.4%
32
25
✓
LOU −26.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Houston
22%
78%
24
31
✓
HOU −11.7
–
–
Final
UConn@East Carolina
42%
58%
3
41
✓
ECU −2.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
74%
26%
31
26
✓
KSU −10.6
–
–
Final
#18West Virginia@Oklahoma StateUpset
59%
41%
20
37
✗
WVU −4.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
64%
36%
40
17
✓
MINN −6.0
–
–
Final
#2Michigan@Michigan State
95%
5.4%
32
23
✓
MICH −26.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Purdue
87%
13%
62
24
✓
PSU −18.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@NC StateUpset
20%
80%
21
14
✗
NCSU −13.1
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
#19Baylor@TexasUpset
56%
44%
34
35
✗
BAY −3.0
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
32%
68%
21
13
✗
WAKE −6.8
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Notre Dame
44%
56%
27
30
✓
ND −2.0
–
–
Final
#17FloridavsGeorgia
67%
33%
24
10
✓
FLA −7.5
–
–
Final
#7Washington@Utah
76%
24%
31
24
✓
WASH −11.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
91%
9.0%
52
3
✓
WKU −21.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
20%
80%
13
34
✓
TEM −12.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
39%
61%
27
24
✗
TCU −4.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#3Ohio State
7.0%
93%
20
24
✓
OSU −23.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Indiana
50%
50%
36
42
✗
MD −0.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
35%
65%
28
15
✗
EMU −5.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
60%
40%
35
31
✓
SMU −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon
40%
60%
35
54
✓
ORE −3.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@South Alabama
42%
58%
10
13
✓
USA −2.7
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Boise State@WyomingUpset
85%
15%
28
30
✗
BOIS −17.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
85%
15%
42
35
✓
MTSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Rice@Louisiana Tech
9.1%
91%
16
61
✓
LT −21.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@Southern Miss
24%
76%
14
24
✓
USM −10.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTSA
38%
62%
17
31
✓
UTSA −4.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#11Oklahoma
1.4%
99%
3
56
✓
OU −35.2
–
–
Final
#20Nebraska@#15Wisconsin
38%
62%
17
23
✓
WIS −4.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
20%
80%
10
51
✓
ARST −13.0
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@#12Ole Miss
55%
45%
40
29
✓
AUB −2.4
–
–
Final
#10Tennessee@South CarolinaUpset
82%
18%
21
24
✗
TENN −15.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#9Texas A&M
0.3%
>99%
10
52
✓
TA&M −44.6
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
UNLV@San Jose State
52%
48%
24
30
✗
UNLV −1.2
–
–
Final
#24Washington State@Oregon State
80%
20%
35
31
✓
WSU −14.1
–
–
Final
#21Stanford@Arizona
78%
22%
34
10
✓
STAN −13.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
55%
45%
28
21
✓
UNM −2.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Diego State@Utah State
61%
39%
40
13
✓
SDSU −4.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Old Dominion@UTEP
73%
27%
31
21
✓
ODU −10.4
–
–
Final
#4Clemson@#16Florida State
65%
35%
37
34
✓
CLEM −6.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Memphis
35%
65%
59
30
✗
MEM −5.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 29 · 12:00 PM ET Wagner at UMass UMass −30.0 97%
Sat, Oct 29 · 3:30 PM ET Samford at Mississippi State Mississippi State −37.0 99%