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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 75 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 58

Wilder than 58% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois State over Northwestern2.7% chance · won 9-7
  • Runner-upEastern Illinois over Miami (OH)11% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina A&T over Kent State18% chance · won 39-36

Upsets

Fri, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Maryland@FIU
79%
21%
41
14
✓
MD −13.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Rice@Army
13%
87%
14
31
✓
ARMY −16.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@UMass
77%
23%
26
7
✓
BC −11.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#18Nebraska
3.4%
97%
17
52
✓
NEB −28.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Oklahoma StateUpset
21%
79%
30
27
✗
OKST −12.0
–
–
Final
NC State@East Carolina
61%
39%
30
33
✗
NCSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Penn State@Pittsburgh
54%
46%
39
42
✗
PSU −1.9
–
–
Final
UCF@#7Michigan
4.2%
96%
14
51
✓
MICH −26.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Purdue
50%
50%
38
20
✗
CIN −0.3
–
–
Final
Troy@#3Clemson
1.3%
99%
24
30
✓
CLEM −34.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@#19USC
8.8%
91%
7
45
✓
USC −20.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Air Force
17%
83%
14
48
✓
AF −14.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kansas
39%
61%
37
21
✗
KU −3.7
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
SMU@#23Baylor
8.2%
92%
13
40
✓
BAY −21.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@#13Notre Dame
3.2%
97%
10
39
✓
ND −28.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#1Alabama
3.1%
97%
10
38
✓
ALA −28.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Florida
22%
78%
7
45
✓
FLA −11.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Wisconsin
9.4%
91%
10
54
✓
WIS −20.0
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Appalachian State
14%
86%
7
31
✓
APP −16.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
27%
73%
24
14
✗
DUKE −9.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Navy
18%
82%
24
28
✓
NAVY −14.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#2Ohio State
3.9%
96%
3
48
✓
OSU −27.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Vanderbilt
36%
64%
24
47
✓
VAN −5.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@Colorado State
41%
59%
14
23
✓
CSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
22%
78%
20
30
✓
IU −11.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@#12Washington
0.2%
>99%
14
59
✓
WASH −45.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Miami (FL)
8.1%
92%
10
38
✓
MIA −21.3
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Arkansas@TCU
51%
49%
41
38
✓
ARK −0.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Mississippi State
37%
63%
14
27
✓
MSST −4.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@USF
26%
74%
17
48
✓
USF −9.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@#16Texas
3.2%
97%
7
41
✓
TEX −28.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#9Oklahoma
0.7%
99%
17
59
✓
OU −38.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@South Alabama
72%
28%
24
9
✓
GASO −9.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
11%
89%
3
42
✓
IOWA −18.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah
44%
56%
19
20
✓
UTAH −1.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#15Auburn
6.9%
93%
14
51
✓
AUB −22.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Missouri
9.9%
90%
21
61
✓
MIZ −19.6
–
–
Final
#24North Carolina@Illinois
70%
30%
48
23
✓
UNC −8.5
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Texas Tech@Arizona State
48%
52%
55
68
✓
ASU −0.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@#25Boise State
18%
82%
28
31
✓
BOIS −13.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@Oregon
10%
90%
26
44
✓
ORE −19.1
–
–
Final
California@San Diego State
50%
50%
40
45
✓
CAL −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#17Louisville@Syracuse
75%
25%
62
28
✓
LOU −11.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Virginia Techvs#6Tennessee
29%
71%
24
45
✓
TENN −8.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@#22UCLA
6.1%
94%
21
42
✓
UCLA −23.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico StateUpset
78%
22%
31
32
✗
UNM −12.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Nicholls at #8 Georgia Georgia −59.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:30 PM ET Jacksonville State at #5 LSU LSU −23.5 94%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Wofford at #10 Ole Miss Ole Miss −45.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at #14 Texas A&M Texas A&M −46.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 10:45 PM ET Grambling at Arizona Arizona −44.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 5:30 PM ET Idaho State at Colorado Colorado −43.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Fresno State Fresno State −0.7 53%
Sat, Sep 10 · 11:59 PM ET UT Martin at Hawaii Hawaii −19.4 90%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:30 PM ET Portland State at San Jose State San Jose State −11.3 78%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −18.3 89%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at Toledo Toledo −43.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Kent State Kent State −13.5 82%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Western Michigan Western Michigan −47.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET North Dakota at Bowling Green Bowling Green −23.0 93%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Elon at Charlotte Charlotte −19.6 90%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Morgan State at Marshall Marshall −42.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at North Texas North Texas −7.6 70%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Savannah State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −49.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at #4 Florida State Florida State −56.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:00 PM ET Mercer at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −29.6 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Temple Temple −20.8 91%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Lamar at #20 Houston Houston −47.3 >99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Southern at Tulane Tulane −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 2:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #21 West Virginia West Virginia −40.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Howard at Rutgers Rutgers −40.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Minnesota Minnesota −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Illinois State at Northwestern Northwestern −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −9.7 74%