The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 35

Wilder than 35% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockCharlotte over Southern Miss9.9% chance · won 38-27
  • Runner-upUTSA over Middle Tennessee21% chance · won 45-25
  • Runner-upTCU over Baylor23% chance · won 62-22

Upsets

Wed, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Akron
74%
26%
48
17
✓
TOL −10.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
26%
74%
20
45
✓
NIU −9.7
–
–
Final
#25Western Michigan@Ball State
88%
12%
52
20
✓
WMU −19.0
–
–

Thu, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Ohio
14%
86%
10
34
✓
OHIO −16.8
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#11Oklahoma@Iowa State
89%
11%
34
24
✓
OU −19.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia State
52%
48%
31
16
✓
ARST −1.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@#22Colorado
36%
64%
10
20
✓
COLO −5.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
63%
37%
17
37
✗
CMU −5.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Temple@UConn
80%
20%
21
0
✓
TEM −13.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Boise State
4.0%
96%
31
45
✓
BOIS −27.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Notre DamevsNavy
68%
32%
27
28
✗
ND −8.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
40%
60%
31
12
✗
ARMY −3.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#6Auburn
7.3%
93%
16
23
✓
AUB −22.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@#15Ole Miss
7.1%
93%
27
37
✓
MISS −23.1
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@Mississippi StateUpset
76%
24%
28
35
✗
TA&M −11.7
–
–
Final
#7Louisville@Boston College
90%
9.8%
52
7
✓
LOU −21.1
–
–
Final
Texas@Texas Tech
56%
44%
45
37
✓
TEX −2.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Rutgers
63%
37%
33
27
✓
IU −5.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
60%
40%
27
31
✗
MSU −4.6
–
–
Final
#14Wisconsin@Northwestern
62%
38%
21
7
✓
WIS −5.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#24North Carolina
30%
70%
20
48
✓
UNC −8.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Miami (FL)
38%
62%
28
51
✓
MIA −4.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Middle TennesseeUpset
21%
79%
45
25
✗
MTSU −12.6
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
33%
67%
20
27
✓
WAKE −6.7
–
–
Final
TCU@#19BaylorUpset
23%
77%
62
22
✗
BAY −11.5
–
–
Final
BYU@Cincinnati
76%
24%
20
3
✓
BYU −11.9
–
–
Final
UMass@Troy
12%
88%
31
52
✓
TROY −18.1
–
–
Final
#13Florida@ArkansasUpset
66%
34%
10
31
✗
FLA −6.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#18Stanford
9.6%
90%
15
26
✓
STAN −20.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Colorado State
20%
80%
0
37
✓
CSU −12.9
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Southern MissUpset
9.9%
90%
38
27
✗
USM −20.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Rice
37%
63%
42
25
✗
RICE −4.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#4Clemson
3.7%
96%
0
54
✓
CLEM −28.4
–
–
Final
#12Virginia Tech@Duke
77%
23%
24
21
✓
VT −12.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas State
52%
48%
43
37
✓
OKST −1.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#2Michigan
4.5%
96%
3
59
✓
MICH −26.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
10.0%
90%
31
44
✓
MINN −20.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Appalachian State
3.0%
97%
10
35
✓
APP −29.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@South Carolina
40%
60%
21
31
✓
SC −3.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
14%
86%
7
69
✓
WSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@SMU
54%
46%
51
7
✓
MEM −2.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana
29%
72%
23
13
✗
UL −8.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana-Monroe
70%
30%
35
42
✗
USA −8.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@UCF
17%
83%
6
37
✓
UCF −14.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Western Kentucky
4.3%
96%
21
49
✓
WKU −27.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@North Texas
82%
18%
45
24
✓
LT −14.8
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Oregon@#10USC
20%
80%
20
45
✓
USC −13.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
11%
89%
0
55
✓
SDSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Old Dominion
32%
68%
14
38
✓
ODU −7.0
–
–
Final
#17Florida State@NC State
67%
33%
24
20
✓
FSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@#23West Virginia
2.3%
98%
21
48
✓
WVU −31.6
–
–
Final
Georgia@Kentucky
54%
46%
27
24
✓
UGA −2.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@#21Penn State
31%
69%
14
41
✓
PSU −7.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Nevada@New Mexico
27%
73%
26
35
✓
UNM −9.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
41%
59%
28
52
✓
WYO −3.1
–
–
Final
#8Washington@California
83%
17%
66
27
✓
WASH −15.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#1Alabama@#5LSU
68%
32%
10
0
✓
ALA −8.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
26%
74%
24
45
✓
TLSA −9.8
–
–
Final
#20Nebraska@#3Ohio State
17%
83%
3
62
✓
OSU −14.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 5 · 4:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #16 Tennessee Tennessee −42.1 >99%
Sun, Nov 6 · TBD Houston Christian at UTEP UTEP −9.1 73%