The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Northern Illinois5.0% chance · won 28-23
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Army9.3% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upCentral Arkansas over Arkansas State11% chance · won 28-23

Upsets

Thu, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Clemson@Georgia Tech
66%
34%
26
7
✓
CLEM −6.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Wyoming@Eastern Michigan
47%
53%
24
27
✓
EMU −1.2
–
–
Final
#15USC@UtahUpset
65%
35%
27
31
✗
USC −6.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Kent State@#1Alabama
0.2%
>99%
0
48
✓
ALA −48.4
–
–
Final
Georgia@#14Ole Miss
33%
67%
14
45
✓
MISS −7.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Minnesota
19%
81%
24
31
✓
MINN −14.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Purdue
45%
55%
14
24
✓
PUR −2.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Iowa State
48%
52%
10
44
✓
ISU −1.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Temple
7.8%
92%
20
48
✓
TEM −23.6
–
–
Final
#20Florida State@USF
56%
44%
55
35
✓
FSU −2.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Rutgers
72%
28%
14
7
✓
IOWA −9.7
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@Michigan State
48%
52%
30
6
✗
MSU −0.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Virginia
69%
31%
35
49
✗
CMU −8.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#22Virginia Tech
17%
84%
17
54
✓
VT −16.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@UConn
51%
49%
31
24
✓
SYR −0.4
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
BYUvsWest Virginia
39%
61%
32
35
✓
WVU −4.8
–
–
Final
Duke@#13Notre DameUpset
13%
87%
38
35
✗
ND −19.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@UMass
88%
12%
47
35
✓
MSST −19.4
–
–
Final
#18Florida@#8Tennessee
31%
69%
28
38
✓
TENN −8.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@Oregon State
77%
23%
38
24
✓
BOIS −12.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Akron
62%
38%
45
38
✓
APP −5.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
16%
84%
20
27
✓
CIN −16.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Old Dominion
50%
50%
19
33
✓
ODU −0.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#21North Carolina
26%
74%
36
37
✓
UNC −11.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Indiana
42%
58%
33
28
✗
IU −3.6
–
–
Final
Penn State@#4Michigan
17%
83%
10
49
✓
MICH −15.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Western Kentucky
41%
59%
31
30
✗
WKU −3.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Fresno State
70%
30%
48
41
✓
TLSA −8.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon
30%
70%
41
38
✗
ORE −8.9
–
–
Final
#6LSU@#17Auburn
58%
42%
13
18
✗
LSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Florida Atlantic
68%
32%
31
27
✓
BALL −7.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Rice
34%
66%
42
35
✗
RICE −7.0
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Army@BuffaloUpset
91%
9.3%
20
23
✗
ARMY −21.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Western Michigan
36%
64%
31
49
✓
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
UCF@FIU
68%
32%
53
14
✓
UCF −7.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Middle Tennessee
46%
54%
34
38
✓
MTSU −1.8
–
–
Final
#16Houston@Texas State
95%
5.1%
64
3
✓
HOU −27.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Troy
11%
89%
6
52
✓
TROY −20.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#19Baylor
30%
70%
24
35
✓
BAY −9.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
58%
42%
10
17
✗
SC −3.3
–
–
Final
#11Nebraska@Northwestern
75%
25%
24
13
✓
NEB −10.9
–
–
Final
Arkansasvs#10Texas A&M
38%
62%
24
45
✓
TA&M −5.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@UNLVUpset
12%
88%
33
30
✗
UNLV −19.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
California@Arizona State
45%
55%
41
51
✓
ASU −2.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Utah State
59%
41%
27
20
✓
AF −3.6
–
–
Final
#12Washington@Arizona
80%
20%
35
28
✓
WASH −13.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@SMU
73%
27%
33
3
✓
TCU −10.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#5Stanford@#23UCLA
64%
36%
22
13
✓
STAN −6.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Memphis
19%
81%
3
77
✓
MEM −14.5
–
–
Final
#3Louisville@Marshall
94%
6.4%
59
28
✓
LOU −25.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTEP
78%
22%
34
7
✓
USM −13.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulane
40%
60%
39
41
✓
TULN −4.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 24 · 4:00 PM ET Delaware State at Missouri Missouri −41.1 99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Ohio Ohio −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 24 · 3:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −27.3 95%
Sat, Sep 24 · 1:00 PM ET Wagner at Boston College Boston College −38.1 99%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:10 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas State Kansas State −20.8 89%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −20.4 89%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at South Alabama South Alabama −28.6 96%