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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 77

Wilder than 77% of weeks in the archive.

22 upsets against 16.5 expected

  • Biggest shockKentucky over Louisville7.3% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Ole Miss21% chance · won 55-20
  • Runner-upColorado State over San Diego State24% chance · won 63-31

Upsets

Wed, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Akron@Ohio
31%
69%
3
9
✓
OHIO −7.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
39%
61%
20
21
✓
M-OH −4.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
56%
44%
21
26
✗
CMU −2.8
–
–

Thu, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6LSU@#17Texas A&M
59%
41%
54
39
✓
LSU −4.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
62%
38%
31
21
✓
NIU −5.2
–
–
Final
NC State@#23North CarolinaUpset
26%
74%
28
21
✗
UNC −9.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
59%
41%
44
48
✗
HOU −4.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Missouri
64%
36%
24
28
✗
ARK −6.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
19%
81%
19
27
✓
BGSU −13.8
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
#5Washington@#19Washington State
62%
38%
45
17
✓
WASH −5.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Air Force
70%
30%
20
27
✗
BOIS −9.1
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas
40%
60%
31
9
✗
TEX −3.7
–
–
Final
#24Nebraska@IowaUpset
49%
51%
10
40
✓
NEB −0.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
72%
28%
24
39
✗
LT −9.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
30%
70%
35
55
✓
WMU −7.9
–
–
Final
BaylorvsTexas Tech
63%
37%
35
54
✗
BAY −5.9
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Cincinnati@Tulsa
13%
87%
37
40
✓
TLSA −17.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Arizona
62%
38%
35
56
✗
ASU −5.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Georgia Tech@Georgia
41%
59%
28
27
✗
UGA −3.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#7LouisvilleUpset
7.3%
93%
41
38
✗
LOU −22.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#20Virginia Tech
8.8%
91%
10
52
✓
VT −21.3
–
–
Final
UCF@USF
28%
72%
31
48
✓
USF −8.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
5.0%
95%
19
34
✓
KSU −25.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Maryland
21%
79%
13
31
✓
MD −12.5
–
–
Final
#3Michigan@#2Ohio State
36%
64%
27
30
✓
OSU −5.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
14%
86%
24
26
✓
IU −16.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
14%
86%
21
42
✓
NU −16.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
65%
35%
19
24
✗
ARST −6.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
12%
88%
61
76
✓
PITT −18.3
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
36%
64%
17
14
✗
WAKE −5.3
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#8USC
21%
79%
27
45
✓
USC −12.2
–
–
Final
#10Auburn@#1Alabama
14%
86%
12
30
✓
ALA −16.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#22Ole MissUpset
21%
79%
55
20
✗
MISS −12.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
51%
49%
16
14
✓
SJSU −1.0
–
–
Final
FIU@Old Dominion
16%
84%
28
42
✓
ODU −15.2
–
–
Final
Duke@#21Miami (FL)
15%
85%
21
40
✓
MIA −16.1
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
66%
34%
75
31
✓
NAVY −7.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Iowa State
71%
29%
49
19
✓
WVU −9.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#13Penn State
18%
82%
12
45
✓
PSU −14.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#11Wisconsin
20%
80%
17
31
✓
WIS −12.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Idaho
48%
52%
31
38
✓
Idaho −0.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
58%
42%
24
34
✗
ORE −3.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
35%
65%
45
10
✗
UNLV −5.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTEP
55%
45%
24
52
✗
UNT −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@UConn
43%
57%
38
13
✗
CONN −2.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@New Mexico State
92%
8.2%
37
7
✓
APP −22.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Texas State
91%
8.6%
40
7
✓
TROY −22.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
14%
86%
56
77
✓
MTSU −16.8
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
South Carolina@#4Clemson
4.6%
95%
7
56
✓
CLEM −26.7
–
–
Final
#15Tennessee@VanderbiltUpset
71%
29%
34
45
✗
TENN −9.4
–
–
Final
Utah@#16Colorado
28%
72%
22
27
✓
COLO −8.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
10%
90%
10
37
✓
TEM −19.9
–
–
Final
#18Florida@#12Florida State
35%
65%
13
31
✓
FSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Rice@#14Stanford
0.9%
99%
17
41
✓
STAN −38.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Diego StateUpset
24%
76%
63
31
✗
SDSU −10.7
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Utah State@BYU
10%
90%
10
28
✓
BYU −19.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
52%
48%
35
56
✗
WYO −1.1
–
–
Final
UMass@Hawaii
38%
62%
40
46
✓
HAW −4.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
UCLA@California
62%
38%
10
36
✗
UCLA −5.5
–
–
Final
Charlotte@UTSA
21%
79%
14
33
✓
UTSA −12.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Marshall
87%
13%
60
6
✓
WKU −18.4
–
–