The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 41 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Colorado State19% chance · won 61-50
  • Runner-upHawaii over Middle Tennessee23% chance · won 52-35
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Temple25% chance · won 34-26

Upsets

Sat, Dec 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
New MexicovsUTSA
53%
47%
23
20
✓
UNM −1.7
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
HoustonvsSan Diego State
67%
33%
10
34
✗
HOU −7.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian StatevsToledo
48%
52%
31
28
✗
TOL −0.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@UCF
30%
70%
31
13
✗
UCF −8.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsLouisiana
61%
39%
28
21
✓
USM −4.9
–
–

Mon, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsTulsa
22%
78%
10
55
✓
TLSA −11.6
–
–

Wed, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
BYUvsWyoming
81%
19%
24
21
✓
BYU −14.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
MemphisvsWestern Kentucky
37%
63%
31
51
✓
WKU −4.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Eastern MichiganvsOld Dominion
31%
69%
20
24
✓
ODU −7.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Louisiana TechvsNavy
44%
56%
48
45
✗
NAVY −2.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
OhiovsTroy
38%
62%
23
28
✓
TROY −4.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
IdahovsColorado StateUpset
19%
81%
61
50
✗
CSU −13.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
HawaiivsMiddle TennesseeUpset
23%
77%
52
35
✗
MTSU −11.2
–
–

Mon, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Miami (OH)vsMississippi State
15%
85%
16
17
✓
MSST −16.2
–
–
Final
MarylandvsBoston College
57%
42%
30
36
✗
MD −3.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
NC StatevsVanderbilt
53%
47%
41
17
✓
NCSU −1.8
–
–

Tue, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
ArmyvsNorth Texas
80%
20%
38
31
✓
ARMY −13.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
TemplevsWake ForestUpset
75%
25%
26
34
✗
TEM −11.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Boise StatevsBaylor
59%
41%
12
31
✗
BOIS −4.0
–
–

Wed, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsNorthwestern
55%
45%
24
31
✗
PITT −2.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#21West Virginiavs#19Miami (FL)
45%
55%
14
31
✓
MIA −1.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
IndianavsUtah
29%
71%
24
26
✓
UTAH −8.4
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&MvsKansas StateUpset
59%
41%
28
33
✗
TA&M −4.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Minnesotavs#20Washington StateUpset
37%
63%
17
12
✗
WSU −4.9
–
–

Thu, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
USFvsSouth Carolina
72%
28%
46
39
✓
USF −9.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Arkansasvs#15Virginia Tech
30%
70%
24
35
✓
VT −7.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Oklahoma Statevs#18ColoradoUpset
42%
58%
38
8
✗
COLO −2.8
–
–

Fri, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
GeorgiavsTCU
50%
50%
31
23
✗
UGA −0.3
–
–
Final
#14Stanfordvs#25North Carolina
60%
40%
25
23
✓
STAN −4.4
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Nebraskavs#17Tennessee
39%
61%
24
38
✓
TENN −3.9
–
–
Final
South AlabamavsAir Force
18%
82%
21
45
✓
AF −13.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#3Michiganvs#12Florida State
70%
30%
32
33
✗
MICH −8.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#6LSUvs#9Louisville
57%
43%
29
9
✓
LSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Georgia TechvsKentucky
60%
40%
33
18
✓
GT −4.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#4Washingtonvs#1Alabama
28%
72%
7
24
✓
ALA −8.6
–
–

Sun, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#2Ohio Statevs#5Clemson
60%
40%
0
31
✗
OSU −4.4
–
–

Mon, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#22Floridavs#24Iowa
50%
50%
30
3
✗
FLA −0.5
–
–
Final
#23Western Michiganvs#13Wisconsin
35%
65%
16
24
✓
WIS −5.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#7USCvs#10Penn State
56%
44%
52
49
✓
USC −2.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11Auburnvs#8Oklahoma
42%
58%
19
35
✓
OU −2.6
–
–

Mon, Jan 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Clemsonvs#1Alabama
27%
73%
35
31
✗
ALA −9.4
–
–