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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2016

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 28

Wilder than 28% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Dakota State over Iowa2.9% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Notre Dame17% chance · won 36-28
  • Runner-upAkron over Marshall18% chance · won 65-38

Upsets

Thu, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#25Houston@Cincinnati
70%
30%
40
16
✓
HOU −8.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Arkansas State@Utah State
38%
62%
20
34
✓
USU −4.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UTSA
85%
15%
32
28
✓
ASU −16.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Iowa State@TCU
12%
88%
20
41
✓
TCU −18.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@#3Tennessee
2.2%
98%
19
28
✓
TENN −31.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Rutgers
29%
71%
28
37
✓
RUTG −8.2
–
–
Final
Akron@MarshallUpset
18%
82%
65
38
✗
MRSH −13.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Bowling Green
50%
50%
41
21
✓
MTSU −0.5
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@#11Louisville
45%
55%
20
63
✓
LOU −1.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
24%
76%
27
34
✓
PSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Memphis
22%
78%
7
43
✓
MEM −11.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#20Wisconsin
1.3%
99%
17
23
✓
WIS −34.4
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Appalachian State
40%
60%
45
10
✗
APP −3.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia Tech
36%
64%
7
38
✓
GT −5.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@UConn
41%
59%
10
13
✓
CONN −2.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
2.8%
97%
6
56
✓
WSU −29.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Kansas State
9.1%
91%
7
63
✓
KSU −20.3
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Fresno State@Toledo
13%
87%
17
52
✓
TOL −16.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Central Michigan
20%
80%
21
44
✓
CMU −12.4
–
–
Final
FIU@UMass
34%
66%
13
21
✓
MASS −6.0
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#18Ole Miss
82%
18%
48
43
✓
ALA −14.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#5Michigan
9.7%
90%
28
45
✓
MICH −19.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#15Nebraska
27%
73%
32
35
✓
NEB −8.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Northern Illinois
68%
32%
42
28
✓
SDSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Miami (OH)
86%
14%
31
24
✓
WKU −16.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia Tech
29%
71%
0
49
✓
VT −8.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Oklahoma State
42%
58%
38
45
✓
OKST −2.8
–
–
Final
USF@Syracuse
64%
36%
45
20
✓
USF −5.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Kentucky
9.5%
90%
42
62
✓
UK −20.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
31%
69%
15
20
✓
SC −7.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Illinois
50%
50%
34
10
✗
WMU −0.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Charlotte
43%
57%
37
19
✗
CLT −2.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@NC State
13%
87%
22
49
✓
NCSU −17.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia Southern
4.6%
95%
21
23
✓
GASO −25.9
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Army@UTEP
71%
29%
66
14
✓
ARMY −9.2
–
–
Final
#17Texas A&M@#14Auburn
36%
64%
29
16
✗
AUB −5.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#4LSU
15%
85%
20
23
✓
LSU −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas Tech
33%
67%
45
59
✓
TTU −6.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Southern Miss
28%
72%
37
31
✗
USM −8.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@UCF
68%
32%
30
24
✓
MD −7.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
73%
27%
21
14
✓
NAVY −10.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
52%
48%
23
28
✗
USA −1.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#9Notre DameUpset
17%
83%
36
28
✗
ND −14.4
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas
4.4%
96%
3
42
✓
ARK −26.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@#19Florida
0.7%
99%
0
32
✓
FLA −38.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@Missouri
55%
45%
28
27
✓
UGA −2.3
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#8Oklahoma
63%
37%
45
24
✓
OSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Nevada
23%
77%
14
38
✓
NEV −10.8
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#22UCLA@BYU
62%
38%
17
14
✓
UCLA −5.3
–
–
Final
Utah@San Jose State
76%
24%
34
17
✓
UTAH −11.4
–
–
Final
#16Texas@CaliforniaUpset
75%
25%
43
50
✗
TEX −10.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Arizona
8.6%
91%
28
47
✓
ARIZ −20.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21Baylor@Rice
96%
4.3%
38
10
✓
BAY −27.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#12USC@#10Stanford
40%
60%
10
27
✓
STAN −3.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
43%
57%
13
24
✓
NU −2.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho State at Oregon State Oregon State −43.7 >99%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Portland State at #13 Washington Washington −48.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Colorado State Colorado State −13.0 81%
Sat, Sep 17 · 4:00 PM ET UC Davis at Wyoming Wyoming −25.6 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Ball State Ball State −27.2 96%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET Monmouth at Kent State Kent State −11.4 78%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET South Carolina State at #6 Clemson Clemson −52.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET James Madison at #24 North Carolina North Carolina −20.2 91%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:30 PM ET Delaware at Wake Forest Wake Forest −14.3 83%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Liberty at SMU SMU −1.4 55%
Sat, Sep 17 · 2:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Tulsa Tulsa −28.5 97%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET North Dakota State at #23 Iowa Iowa −29.2 97%