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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 16 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 16

Wilder than 16% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 5.2 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Georgia State35% chance · won 24-10
  • Runner-upCoastal Carolina over Georgia Southern44% chance · won 28-17
  • Runner-upTroy over Arkansas State44% chance · won 32-25

Fri, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16Stanfordvs#12USC
46%
54%
28
31
✓
USC −1.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
AkronvsToledo
22%
78%
28
45
✓
TOL −12.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@#19UCF
29%
71%
55
62
✓
UCF −8.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Florida Atlantic
18%
82%
17
41
✓
FAU −14.0
–
–
Final
UMass@FIU
48%
52%
45
63
✓
FIU −0.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#25Florida State
3.6%
96%
10
42
✓
FSU −28.5
–
–
Final
#11TCUvs#9Oklahoma
37%
63%
17
41
✓
OU −4.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina
56%
44%
17
28
✗
GASO −3.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@Georgia State
35%
65%
24
10
✗
GAST −5.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Appalachian State
11%
89%
14
63
✓
APP −19.3
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#5Georgiavs#4Auburn
48%
52%
28
7
✗
AUB −0.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@New Mexico State
37%
63%
17
22
✓
NMSU −4.8
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Troy@Arkansas State
44%
56%
32
25
✗
ARST −1.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Boise State
26%
74%
14
17
✓
BOIS −9.9
–
–
Final
#17Miami (FL)vs#6Clemson
30%
70%
3
38
✓
CLEM −7.9
–
–
Final
#2Ohio Statevs#7Wisconsin
56%
44%
27
21
✓
OSU −3.0
–
–