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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 45

Wilder than 45% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 17.1 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Jose State over Wyoming10% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Mississippi State17% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over Miami (FL)18% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Wed, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
17%
83%
31
34
✓
EMU −15.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
13%
87%
14
24
✓
AKR −17.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
79%
21%
28
7
✓
M-OH −13.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@#19Mississippi StateUpset
17%
83%
31
28
✗
MSST −14.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
32%
68%
10
37
✓
TOL −7.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@#13TCU
6.6%
93%
22
45
✓
TCU −23.7
–
–
Final
#11Miami (FL)@PittsburghUpset
82%
18%
14
24
✗
MIA −15.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Houston
42%
58%
14
24
✓
HOU −2.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
59%
41%
24
31
✗
NIU −3.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
67%
33%
24
31
✗
OHIO −7.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Arkansas
66%
34%
48
45
✓
MIZ −6.9
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
USF@#20UCF
27%
73%
42
49
✓
UCF −9.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
11%
89%
10
35
✓
SDSU −19.3
–
–
Final
#23Iowa@Nebraska
67%
33%
56
14
✓
IOWA −7.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Troy
5.0%
95%
9
62
✓
TROY −26.0
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Texas Tech@#21TexasUpset
23%
77%
27
23
✗
TEX −11.2
–
–
Final
#17Virginia Tech@Virginia
79%
21%
10
0
✓
VT −13.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
California@UCLA
35%
65%
27
30
✓
UCLA −5.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Florida State@Florida
51%
49%
38
22
✓
FSU −1.0
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@Georgia Tech
74%
26%
38
7
✓
UGA −11.0
–
–
Final
#24Louisville@Kentucky
63%
37%
44
17
✓
LOU −5.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@#15Oklahoma State
0.9%
99%
17
58
✓
OKST −37.5
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#14Michigan
64%
36%
31
20
✓
OSU −6.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
36%
64%
24
31
✓
PUR −5.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Cincinnati
36%
64%
21
22
✓
CIN −5.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
5.9%
94%
13
70
✓
MEM −24.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
25%
75%
38
41
✓
SMU −10.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
55%
45%
42
14
✓
BC −2.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
30%
70%
31
23
✗
WAKE −7.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Rice
76%
24%
30
14
✓
UNT −11.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@UAB
14%
86%
7
28
✓
UAB −16.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Charlotte
94%
5.8%
31
12
✓
FAU −25.6
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
67%
33%
31
10
✓
APP −7.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Marshall
34%
66%
28
27
✗
MRSH −6.0
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Old Dominion@Middle Tennessee
29%
71%
10
41
✓
MTSU −8.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
75%
25%
67
50
✓
ARST −11.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
45%
55%
16
23
✓
NEV −1.5
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#4Auburn
61%
39%
14
26
✗
ALA −5.0
–
–
Final
#25Iowa State@Kansas StateUpset
53%
47%
19
20
✗
ISU −1.7
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Maryland
92%
7.7%
66
3
✓
PSU −23.2
–
–
Final
#7Wisconsin@Minnesota
86%
14%
31
0
✓
WIS −17.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
18%
82%
21
33
✓
NCSU −13.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@Fresno State
68%
32%
17
28
✗
BOIS −7.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#8Oklahoma
14%
86%
31
59
✓
OU −17.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
35%
65%
42
24
✗
TENN −5.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
87%
13%
42
7
✓
NU −18.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Rutgers
75%
25%
40
7
✓
MSU −11.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulsa
48%
52%
43
22
✗
TLSA −0.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@New Mexico State
34%
66%
10
17
✓
NMSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@Arizona State
42%
58%
30
42
✓
ASU −2.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana
41%
59%
34
24
✗
UL −3.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Jose StateUpset
90%
10%
17
20
✗
WYO −20.5
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Texas A&M@#16LSU
26%
74%
21
45
✓
LSU −9.8
–
–
Final
#6Clemson@South Carolina
79%
21%
34
10
✓
CLEM −13.6
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
44%
56%
6
20
✓
LT −2.1
–
–
Final
#9Notre Dame@#18Stanford
60%
40%
20
38
✗
ND −4.6
–
–
Final
#22Washington State@#10Washington
20%
80%
14
41
✓
WASH −12.8
–
–
Final
BYU@Hawaii
68%
32%
30
20
✓
BYU −7.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Colorado@Utah
34%
66%
13
34
✓
UTAH −6.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Air Force
48%
52%
35
38
✓
AF −0.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
59%
41%
17
41
✗
WKU −4.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Oregon State@Oregon
10.0%
90%
10
69
✓
ORE −20.1
–
–