The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 40 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockUCF over Auburn27% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upSouth Carolina over Michigan27% chance · won 26-19
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Utah State28% chance · won 26-20

Upsets

Sat, Dec 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
TroyvsNorth Texas
74%
26%
50
30
✓
TROY −10.8
–
–
Final
Western KentuckyvsGeorgia State
60%
40%
17
27
✗
WKU −4.3
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Boise StatevsOregon
47%
53%
38
28
✗
ORE −0.6
–
–
Final
MarshallvsColorado State
40%
60%
31
28
✗
CSU −3.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsArkansas State
31%
69%
35
30
✗
ARST −7.4
–
–

Wed, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana TechvsSMU
32%
68%
51
10
✗
SMU −6.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Akron@Florida Atlantic
17%
83%
3
50
✓
FAU −14.6
–
–

Thu, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
TemplevsFIU
70%
30%
28
3
✓
TEM −9.0
–
–

Fri, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UABvsOhio
22%
78%
6
41
✓
OHIO −11.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Central MichiganvsWyoming
46%
54%
14
37
✓
WYO −1.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Texas TechvsUSF
42%
58%
34
38
✓
USF −2.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
San Diego StatevsArmy
60%
40%
35
42
✗
SDSU −4.4
–
–

Sun, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno StatevsHouston
42%
58%
33
27
✗
HOU −2.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Appalachian StatevsToledo
37%
63%
34
0
✗
TOL −4.8
–
–

Tue, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UtahvsWest Virginia
52%
48%
30
14
✓
UTAH −1.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
DukevsNorthern Illinois
68%
32%
36
14
✓
DUKE −7.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Kansas StatevsUCLA
52%
48%
35
17
✓
KSU −1.5
–
–

Wed, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Southern Missvs#25Florida State
11%
89%
13
42
✓
FSU −19.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#21IowavsBoston College
62%
38%
27
20
✓
IOWA −5.4
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
ArizonavsPurdue
43%
57%
35
38
✓
PUR −2.3
–
–
Final
#24TexasvsMissouri
59%
41%
33
16
✓
TEX −3.9
–
–

Thu, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Virginia@Navy
37%
63%
7
49
✓
NAVY −4.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#18Virginia Techvs#12Oklahoma State
42%
58%
21
30
✓
OKST −2.6
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#16Stanfordvs#14TCU
48%
52%
37
39
✓
TCU −0.4
–
–
Final
Washington StatevsMichigan State
52%
48%
17
42
✗
WSU −1.3
–
–

Fri, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Wake ForestvsTexas A&M
56%
44%
55
52
✓
WAKE −2.9
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
NC StatevsArizona State
61%
39%
52
31
✓
NCSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Kentuckyvs#23Northwestern
24%
76%
23
24
✓
NU −10.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico StatevsUtah State
28%
72%
26
20
✗
USU −8.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11USCvs#2Ohio State
27%
73%
7
24
✓
OSU −9.1
–
–

Sat, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#22Louisvillevs#20Mississippi State
46%
54%
27
31
✓
MSST −1.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Memphis
49%
51%
21
20
✗
ISU −0.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#9Washingtonvs#5Penn State
41%
59%
28
35
✓
PSU −3.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Wisconsin@#17Miami (FL)
63%
37%
34
24
✓
WIS −5.9
–
–

Mon, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#13MichiganvsSouth CarolinaUpset
73%
27%
19
26
✗
MICH −10.3
–
–
Final
#19UCFvs#7Auburn
27%
73%
34
27
✗
AUB −9.4
–
–
Final
#10Notre Damevs#15LSU
58%
42%
21
17
✓
ND −3.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#3Georgiavs#6Oklahoma
54%
46%
54
48
✓
UGA −2.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Alabamavs#4Clemson
58%
42%
24
6
✓
ALA −3.9
–
–

Mon, Jan 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Alabamavs#3Georgia
58%
42%
26
23
✓
ALA −3.9
–
–