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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho State over Nevada1.6% chance · won 30-28
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Nebraska19% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over Stanford21% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Fri, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Illinois@USF
31%
69%
23
47
✓
USF −7.1
–
–
Final
UMass@Temple
17%
83%
21
29
✓
TEM −14.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona@UTEP
89%
11%
63
16
✓
ARIZ −19.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
New Mexico@Boise State
14%
86%
14
28
✓
BOIS −16.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Louisiana@Texas A&M
3.2%
97%
21
45
✓
TA&M −28.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Ohio
36%
64%
30
42
✓
OHIO −5.0
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma State@Pittsburgh
81%
19%
59
21
✓
OKST −13.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Akron
72%
28%
41
14
✓
ISU −9.6
–
–
Final
#20UCLA@MemphisUpset
70%
30%
45
48
✗
UCLA −8.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@#3Michigan
5.3%
95%
13
29
✓
MICH −24.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@NebraskaUpset
19%
81%
21
17
✗
NEB −12.9
–
–
Final
UConn@Virginia
29%
71%
18
38
✓
UVA −7.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Duke
27%
73%
20
34
✓
DUKE −8.8
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@UAB
55%
45%
23
30
✗
CCU −2.4
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Utah State@Wake Forest
12%
88%
10
46
✓
WAKE −18.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#17Florida
34%
66%
20
26
✓
FLA −5.7
–
–
Final
SMU@#19TCU
17%
83%
36
56
✓
TCU −14.2
–
–
Final
#14Notre Dame@Boston College
90%
10%
49
20
✓
ND −20.2
–
–
Final
#15Wisconsin@BYU
83%
17%
40
6
✓
WIS −15.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Iowa
6.3%
94%
14
31
✓
IOWA −23.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Minnesota
21%
79%
3
34
✓
MINN −11.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Old Dominion
74%
26%
53
23
✓
UNC −10.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Syracuse
28%
72%
17
41
✓
SYR −8.4
–
–
Final
#23Virginia Tech@East Carolina
94%
5.8%
64
17
✓
VT −24.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Missouri
33%
67%
35
3
✗
MIZ −6.5
–
–
Final
Army@#4Ohio State
4.5%
96%
7
38
✓
OSU −26.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
7.6%
92%
23
52
✓
WSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@#6Oklahoma
1.1%
99%
14
56
✓
OU −35.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Marshall
34%
66%
0
21
✓
MRSH −6.0
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Colorado State@#1Alabama
2.0%
98%
23
41
✓
ALA −31.8
–
–
Final
#8LSU@#25Mississippi State
73%
27%
7
37
✗
LSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Oregon@Wyoming
86%
14%
49
13
✓
ORE −17.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Western Kentucky
37%
63%
23
22
✗
WKU −4.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana-Monroe
70%
30%
28
17
✓
USM −8.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Toledo
40%
60%
51
54
✓
TOL −3.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Texas State
91%
9.2%
20
13
✓
APP −21.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Western Michigan
11%
89%
28
37
✓
WMU −19.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#24South CarolinaUpset
22%
78%
23
13
✗
SC −11.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Vanderbilt
54%
46%
7
14
✗
KSU −2.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northwestern
9.4%
91%
7
49
✓
NU −20.1
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#7Penn State
0.6%
99%
0
56
✓
PSU −39.4
–
–
Final
#22Texas@#2USC
17%
83%
24
27
✓
USC −14.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#9Washington
4.0%
96%
16
48
✓
WASH −26.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Jose State@Utah
7.6%
92%
16
54
✓
UTAH −21.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@California
66%
34%
16
27
✗
MISS −6.6
–
–
Final
#16Stanford@San Diego StateUpset
79%
21%
17
20
✗
STAN −12.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Arizona State@Texas Tech
38%
62%
45
52
✓
TTU −4.1
–
–
Final
#5Clemson@#18Louisville
69%
31%
47
21
✓
CLEM −8.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
8.3%
92%
3
38
✓
HOU −21.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
50%
50%
21
17
✓
CIN −0.5
–
–
Final
Troy@New Mexico State
75%
25%
27
24
✓
TROY −10.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · 4:00 PM ET Mercer at #13 Auburn Auburn −41.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:30 PM ET Samford at #11 Georgia Georgia −48.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware State at West Virginia West Virginia −45.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 2:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at #21 Colorado Colorado −38.4 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State vs Rutgers Rutgers −37.7 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 12:20 PM ET Furman at NC State NC State −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Charlotte Charlotte −7.0 69%
Sat, Sep 16 · 6:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −26.1 96%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Southern at UTSA UTSA −43.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas State Arkansas State −31.5 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Alabama A&M vs South Alabama South Alabama −29.9 97%
Sat, Sep 16 · 6:00 PM ET Colgate at Buffalo Buffalo −18.4 89%
Sat, Sep 16 · 3:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Ball State Ball State −21.1 92%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Idaho State at Nevada Nevada −33.1 98%