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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 7

Wilder than 7% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTroy over LSU13% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upNorth Texas over Southern Miss26% chance · won 43-28
  • Runner-upWashington State over USC26% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Fri, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22Miami (FL)@#24Duke
50%
50%
31
6
✗
DUKE −0.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#6USC@#23Washington State
74%
26%
27
30
✗
USC −10.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#25Texas@Iowa State
65%
35%
17
7
✓
TEX −6.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas
20%
80%
24
42
✓
ARK −13.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#21Florida
33%
67%
24
38
✓
FLA −7.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Minnesota
35%
65%
31
24
✗
MINN −6.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#10Wisconsin
18%
82%
24
33
✓
WIS −15.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
38%
62%
7
33
✓
GT −5.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Pittsburgh
14%
86%
10
42
✓
PITT −18.0
–
–
Final
USF@East Carolina
94%
6.4%
61
31
✓
USF −25.2
–
–
Final
Houston@Temple
78%
22%
20
13
✓
HOU −13.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@NC State
29%
72%
25
33
✓
NCSU −9.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Boston College
29%
71%
8
28
✓
BC −9.4
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#9Georgia@Tennessee
77%
23%
41
0
✓
UGA −12.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas State
35%
65%
20
33
✓
KSU −6.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Army
7.8%
92%
21
35
✓
ARMY −23.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#8Penn State
16%
84%
14
45
✓
PSU −16.4
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@Wake Forest
69%
31%
26
19
✓
FSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@UMass
73%
27%
58
50
✓
OHIO −10.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulsa
65%
35%
31
21
✓
NAVY −6.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
58%
42%
27
13
✓
BUF −3.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kentucky
20%
80%
20
24
✓
UK −13.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#17Stanford
21%
79%
24
34
✓
STAN −13.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Michigan State
60%
40%
10
17
✗
IOWA −4.0
–
–
Final
UConn@SMU
15%
85%
28
49
✓
SMU −17.3
–
–
Final
Texas State@Wyoming
27%
73%
10
45
✓
WYO −10.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#11Notre Dame
5.6%
94%
17
52
✓
ND −26.4
–
–
Final
#20Mississippi State@#15Auburn
43%
57%
10
49
✓
AUB −3.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
70%
30%
34
23
✓
AKR −8.6
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Troy@#16LSUUpset
13%
87%
24
21
✗
LSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Charlotte@FIU
35%
65%
29
30
✓
FIU −6.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
53%
47%
20
38
✗
MTSU −1.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana Tech
30%
70%
16
34
✓
LT −8.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Cincinnati
49%
51%
38
21
✗
CIN −0.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Southern Miss
26%
74%
43
28
✗
USM −10.7
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Louisiana-Monroe
29%
72%
43
51
✓
ULM −9.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
31%
69%
3
55
✓
WMU −8.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
71%
29%
38
56
✗
AF −9.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@UCF
30%
70%
13
40
✓
UCF −8.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Texas A&M
48%
52%
17
24
✓
TA&M −1.0
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Rutgers
96%
3.5%
56
0
✓
OSU −30.0
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#1Alabama
3.3%
97%
3
66
✓
ALA −30.4
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
Nevada@Fresno State
25%
75%
21
41
✓
FRES −11.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@UCLA
50%
50%
23
27
✗
COLO −0.1
–
–
Final
California@Oregon
36%
64%
24
45
✓
ORE −6.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@San Diego State
27%
73%
28
34
✓
SDSU −10.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
29%
71%
13
41
✓
UNLV −9.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Hawaii
86%
14%
51
21
✓
CSU −17.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Nebraska@Illinois
67%
33%
28
6
✓
NEB −7.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah State
62%
38%
24
40
✗
BYU −5.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#13Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
75%
25%
41
34
✓
OKST −10.9
–
–
Final
#5Washington@Oregon State
98%
1.8%
42
7
✓
WASH −34.7
–
–
Final
#2Clemson@#18Virginia Tech
73%
27%
31
17
✓
CLEM −10.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 30 · 3:30 PM ET Murray State at #19 Louisville Louisville −52.2 >99%