The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Coastal Carolina23% chance · won 52-10
  • Runner-upNC State over Florida State23% chance · won 27-21
  • Runner-upVirginia over Boise State26% chance · won 42-23

Upsets

Thu, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Temple@USF
22%
78%
7
43
✓
USF −12.6
–
–

Fri, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Utah@Arizona
60%
40%
30
24
✓
UTAH −4.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Texas A&MvsArkansas
58%
42%
50
43
✓
TA&M −3.2
–
–
Final
UMass@Tennessee
4.1%
96%
13
17
✓
TENN −28.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
90%
9.6%
56
34
✓
WVU −21.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Houston
44%
56%
27
24
✗
HOU −2.5
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
71%
29%
17
21
✗
ARMY −9.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@#2Ohio State
1.0%
99%
21
54
✓
OSU −38.8
–
–
Final
NC State@#10Florida StateUpset
23%
77%
27
21
✗
FSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@#21Louisville
3.1%
97%
3
42
✓
LOU −31.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
25%
75%
17
35
✓
GT −11.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Tulsa
35%
65%
16
13
✗
TLSA −6.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@#19Virginia Tech
7.0%
93%
0
38
✓
VT −24.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@South Alabama
35%
65%
29
23
✗
USA −6.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
45%
55%
27
20
✗
EMU −2.1
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
UCF@Maryland
44%
56%
38
10
✗
MD −2.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@South Carolina
17%
83%
16
17
✓
SC −15.9
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Vanderbilt
91%
9.3%
59
0
✓
ALA −21.8
–
–
Final
#17TCU@#9Oklahoma State
35%
65%
44
31
✗
OKST −6.4
–
–
Final
#6USC@California
89%
11%
30
20
✓
USC −20.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Indiana
9.0%
91%
17
52
✓
IU −22.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Nebraska
29%
71%
17
27
✓
NEB −9.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#3Clemson
2.9%
97%
7
34
✓
CLEM −31.4
–
–
Final
#25Duke@North Carolina
57%
43%
27
17
✓
DUKE −2.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Miami (FL)
24%
76%
30
52
✓
MIA −11.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Appalachian State
70%
30%
20
19
✓
WAKE −8.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Navy
30%
70%
32
42
✓
NAVY −8.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
56%
44%
31
14
✓
M-OH −2.6
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Purdue
88%
12%
28
10
✓
MICH −19.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
59%
41%
56
50
✓
ULM −3.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@#24Washington State
4.2%
96%
7
45
✓
WSU −28.7
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Charlotte
61%
39%
28
0
✓
GAST −4.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Troy
28%
72%
17
22
✓
TROY −9.7
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Baylor
92%
7.8%
49
41
✓
OU −23.5
–
–
Final
UAB@North Texas
41%
59%
43
46
✓
UNT −3.7
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
#13Mississippi State@#15Georgia
52%
48%
3
31
✗
MSST −0.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#14LSU
15%
85%
26
35
✓
LSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Buffalo
65%
35%
31
34
✗
FAU −6.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Middle Tennessee
22%
78%
13
24
✓
MTSU −12.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Kentucky
40%
60%
21
33
✓
WKU −4.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@SMU
50%
50%
21
44
✓
SMU −0.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
54%
46%
28
24
✓
SDSU −1.5
–
–
Final
#16Florida@Kentucky
74%
26%
28
27
✓
FLA −10.3
–
–
Final
#18Auburn@Missouri
80%
20%
51
14
✓
AUB −14.0
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Iowa
83%
17%
21
19
✓
PSU −15.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Rice
43%
57%
13
7
✗
RICE −3.2
–
–
Final
UTSA@Texas State
80%
20%
44
14
✓
UTSA −13.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
59%
41%
61
10
✓
USU −3.6
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Oregon@Arizona State
69%
31%
35
37
✗
ORE −8.2
–
–
Final
#8Washington@Colorado
72%
28%
37
10
✓
WASH −9.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
45%
55%
21
28
✓
WYO −2.1
–
–
Final
#23UCLA@#20Stanford
43%
57%
34
58
✓
STAN −2.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@Boise State
26%
74%
42
23
✗
BOIS −10.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
East Carolina@UConn
42%
58%
41
38
✗
CONN −3.4
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#12Notre Dame@Michigan State
75%
25%
38
18
✓
ND −11.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
22%
78%
14
41
✓
NMSU −13.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Sep 24 · TBD Southern Illinois at Memphis Memphis −37.6 99%
Sat, Sep 23 · 6:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −12.6 78%
Sat, Sep 23 · 7:00 PM ET Wagner at Western Michigan Western Michigan −36.3 99%