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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 97

Wilder than 97% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 15.6 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Clemson6.2% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upArizona State over Washington11% chance · won 13-7
  • Runner-upSouth Alabama over Troy15% chance · won 19-8

Upsets

Thu, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Texas State@Louisiana
35%
65%
7
24
✓
UL −6.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
South Alabama@TroyUpset
15%
85%
19
8
✗
TROY −17.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#3Clemson@SyracuseUpset
94%
6.2%
24
27
✗
CLEM −25.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#17Washington State@CaliforniaUpset
84%
16%
3
37
✗
WSU −16.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
BYU@Mississippi State
14%
86%
10
35
✓
MSST −17.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Tennessee
58%
42%
15
9
✓
SC −3.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
5.2%
95%
0
45
✓
ISU −27.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@West Virginia
52%
48%
35
46
✗
TTU −0.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Army
33%
67%
27
28
✓
ARMY −7.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Illinois
56%
44%
35
24
✓
RUTG −2.3
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@Indiana
86%
14%
27
20
✓
MICH −17.5
–
–
Final
#15Florida State@Duke
72%
28%
17
10
✓
FSU −9.4
–
–
Final
#25NC State@Pittsburgh
77%
23%
35
17
✓
NCSU −12.1
–
–
Final
UConn@TempleUpset
20%
80%
28
24
✗
TEM −14.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@LouisvilleUpset
21%
79%
45
42
✗
LOU −13.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
29%
72%
30
34
✓
AF −9.5
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Marshall
27%
73%
3
35
✓
MRSH −10.2
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
#13TCU@Kansas State
69%
31%
26
6
✓
TCU −8.1
–
–
Final
#11Auburn@#23LSU
67%
33%
23
27
✗
AUB −7.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
56%
44%
35
57
✗
VAN −2.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#14Oklahoma State
14%
86%
16
59
✓
OKST −18.1
–
–
Final
#10Oklahomavs#24Texas
70%
30%
29
24
✓
OU −8.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Maryland
53%
47%
37
21
✓
NU −1.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@#12Wisconsin
17%
83%
9
17
✓
WIS −16.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
52%
48%
20
14
✓
UVA −0.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
72%
28%
14
17
✗
M-OH −9.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Buffalo
69%
31%
14
13
✓
NIU −8.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
71%
29%
48
30
✓
OHIO −9.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
76%
24%
30
10
✓
TOL −11.5
–
–
Final
#22Georgia Tech@#16Miami (FL)
41%
59%
24
25
✓
MIA −3.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Memphis
52%
48%
27
30
✗
NAVY −0.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon State
86%
14%
36
33
✓
COLO −17.6
–
–
Final
Houston@TulsaUpset
82%
18%
17
45
✗
HOU −15.0
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Western Kentucky
15%
86%
14
45
✓
WKU −17.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
41%
59%
28
23
✗
USU −4.0
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Idaho
87%
13%
23
20
✓
APP −18.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Louisiana-Monroe
51%
49%
47
37
✓
GAST −0.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia Southern
69%
31%
35
27
✓
NMSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UAB
71%
29%
23
25
✗
MTSU −9.2
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Texas A&M@#21FloridaUpset
40%
60%
19
17
✗
FLA −4.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@FIUUpset
81%
19%
10
23
✗
TULN −14.6
–
–
Final
UTSA@North Texas
67%
33%
26
29
✗
UTSA −7.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@Southern Miss
14%
86%
0
24
✓
USM −18.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#19UCF
2.2%
98%
21
63
✓
UCF −33.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Arkansas State
8.9%
91%
17
51
✓
ARST −22.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#1Alabama
2.2%
98%
9
41
✓
ALA −33.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@#6Georgia
4.8%
95%
28
53
✓
UGA −27.6
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Nebraska
92%
7.5%
56
14
✓
OSU −23.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@USF
11%
89%
3
33
✓
USF −20.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@Arizona
61%
39%
30
47
✗
UCLA −4.5
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
New Mexico@Fresno State
48%
52%
0
38
✓
FRES −1.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
9.1%
91%
42
44
✓
CSU −22.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@San Diego State
48%
52%
31
14
✗
SDSU −1.0
–
–
Final
#5Washington@Arizona StateUpset
89%
11%
7
13
✗
WASH −20.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@#18Stanford
34%
66%
7
49
✓
STAN −6.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
37%
63%
26
37
✓
HAW −5.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Akron@Western Michigan
32%
68%
14
13
✗
WMU −7.9
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Utah@#9USC
19%
81%
27
28
✓
USC −14.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
59%
41%
30
27
✓
MSU −3.5
–
–