Week 1 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 91 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.2 expected

Biggest shockHoward over UNLV2.4% chance · won 43-40
Runner-upTennessee State over Georgia State13% chance · won 17-10
Runner-upLiberty over Baylor18% chance · won 48-45

Upsets

Maryland 51, Texas 41Maryland won; the model gave them 25% before kickoff
NC State 28, South Carolina 35#25 NC State lost to unranked South Carolina

Sat, Aug 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Oregon State@

Colorado State

41%
59%

27
58

✓

CSU −2.9

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Hawaii@

UMass

47%
53%

38
35

✗

MASS −0.5

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

USF@

San Jose State

77%
23%

42
22

✓

USF −11.9

–

Late night 1 game

Final

#14Stanfordvs

Rice

95%
5.0%

62
7

✓

STAN −26.0

–

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

FIU@

UCF

15%
85%

17
61

✓

UCF −15.8

–

Prime time 3 games

Final

Buffalo@

Minnesota

7.5%
92%

7
17

✓

MINN −22.0

–

Final

Tulsa@

#21Oklahoma State

17%
83%

24
59

✓

OKST −14.1

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@

Memphis

8.0%
92%

29
37

✓

MEM −21.4

–

Late night 1 game

Final

New Mexico State@

Arizona State

9.0%
91%

31
37

✓

ASU −20.4

–

Fri, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Charlotte@

Eastern Michigan

29%
71%

7
24

✓

EMU −7.9

–

Prime time 2 games

Final

Utah State@

#16Wisconsin

8.8%
91%

10
59

✓

WIS −20.6

–

Final

Boston College@

Northern Illinois

55%
45%

23
20

✓

BC −2.4

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#2Ohio State@

Indiana

85%
15%

49
21

✓

OSU −16.3

–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final

Maryland@

#24TexasUpset

25%
75%

51
41

✗

TEX −10.1

–

Final

Ball State@

Illinois

29%
72%

21
24

✓

ILL −8.3

–

Final

Wyoming@

Iowa

18%
82%

3
24

✓

IOWA −13.6

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Michigan State

22%
78%

10
35

✓

MSU −11.2

–

Final

Akron@

#10Penn State

4.2%
96%

0
52

✓

PSU −26.6

–

Final

Kent State@

#8Clemson

3.7%
96%

3
56

✓

CLEM −27.5

–

Final

California@

North Carolina

31%
70%

35
30

✗

UNC −7.4

–

Afternoon 10 games

Final

#25NC Statevs

South CarolinaUpset

56%
44%

28
35

✗

NCSU −2.8

–

Final

#4Michiganvs

#12Florida

63%
37%

33
17

✓

MICH −5.6

–

Final

UTEP@

#9Oklahoma

1.5%
98%

7
56

✓

OU −33.5

–

Final

Temple@

#18Notre Dame

25%
75%

16
49

✓

ND −10.1

–

Final

Nevada@

Northwestern

11%
89%

20
31

✓

NU −19.0

–

Final

Troy@

Boise State

31%
69%

13
24

✓

BOIS −7.0

–

Final

Kentucky@

Southern Miss

66%
34%

24
17

✓

UK −6.7

–

Final

Western Michigan@

#5USC

9.0%
91%

31
49

✓

USC −20.4

–

Final

Appalachian State@

#13Georgia

21%
79%

10
31

✓

UGA −11.9

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

Marshall

54%
46%

26
31

✗

M-OH −2.1

–

Prime time 5 games

Final

UMass@

Coastal Carolina

50%
50%

28
38

✗

MASS −0.6

–

Final

Georgia Southern@

#11Auburn

5.4%
95%

7
41

✓

AUB −24.6

–

Final

South Alabama@

Ole Miss

9.3%
91%

27
47

✓

MISS −20.1

–

Final

#15Louisvillevs

Purdue

87%
13%

35
28

✓

LOU −17.6

–

Final

BYUvs

#3LSU

14%
86%

0
27

✓

LSU −16.5

–

Time TBD 3 games

Final

Colorado Statevs

Colorado

30%
70%

3
17

✓

COLO −7.6

–

Final

#6Washington@

Rutgers

87%
13%

30
14

✓

WASH −18.0

–

Final

Navy@

Florida Atlantic

59%
41%

42
19

✓

NAVY −3.8

–

Sun, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

#19Texas A&M@

#23UCLA

43%
57%

44
45

✓

UCLA −2.3

–

Final

West Virginiavs

Virginia Tech

43%
57%

24
31

✓

VT −2.2

–

Time TBD 3 games

Final

#7Florida Statevs

#1Alabama

26%
74%

7
24

✓

ALA −9.3

–

Final

Vanderbilt@

Middle Tennessee

68%
32%

28
6

✓

VAN −7.5

–

Final

Arkansas State@

Nebraska

28%
72%

36
43

✓

NEB −8.5

–

Tue, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#20Tennesseevs

Georgia Tech

62%
38%

42
41

✓

TENN −5.3

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Fri, Sep 1 · TBD	Florida A&M vs Arkansas	Arkansas −41.9	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Charleston Southern at Mississippi State	Mississippi State −41.8	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 12:00 PM ET	Missouri State at Missouri	Missouri −17.8	88%
Sun, Sep 3 · TBD	Northern Iowa at Iowa State	Iowa State −27.8	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Liberty at Baylor	Baylor −13.4	82%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Kansas	Kansas −27.4	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:10 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Kansas State	Kansas State −35.2	99%
Sun, Sep 3 · TBD	Jackson State at #22 TCU	TCU −46.5	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Eastern Washington at Texas Tech	Texas Tech −22.3	93%
Fri, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	Fordham at Army	Army −32.9	98%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET	North Dakota at Utah	Utah −35.1	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 11:00 PM ET	Northern Arizona at Arizona	Arizona −38.5	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 8:15 PM ET	Southern Utah at Oregon	Oregon −33.7	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	Portland State at Oregon State	Oregon State −28.1	97%
Sat, Sep 2 · 10:30 PM ET	Montana State at Washington State	Washington State −33.3	98%
Thu, Aug 31 · 6:30 PM ET	Presbyterian at Wake Forest	Wake Forest −45.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	North Carolina Central at Duke	Duke −42.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 12:30 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at #17 Miami (FL)	Miami (FL) −45.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 1:00 PM ET	Youngstown State at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −33.9	99%
Fri, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Connecticut at Syracuse	Syracuse −23.4	94%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	William & Mary at Virginia	Virginia −30.9	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech −32.1	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Lamar at North Texas	North Texas −22.3	93%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	UAlbany at Old Dominion	Old Dominion −25.9	95%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Alabama A&M at UAB	UAB −23.0	93%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky −34.9	99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Austin Peay at Cincinnati	Cincinnati −35.7	99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET	Holy Cross at UConn	UConn −16.6	86%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	James Madison at East Carolina	East Carolina −1.9	56%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Stony Brook at USF	USF −33.2	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at SMU	SMU −36.6	99%
Sun, Sep 3 · TBD	Grambling at Tulane	Tulane −28.1	97%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Tennessee State at Georgia State	Georgia State −16.8	87%
Thu, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET	Sacramento State at Idaho	Idaho −2.4	58%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	SE Louisiana at Louisiana	Louisiana −26.8	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Houston Christian at Texas State	Texas State −14.3	83%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Elon at Toledo	Toledo −43.3	>99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Central Michigan	Central Michigan −31.7	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Hampton at Ohio	Ohio −20.7	91%
Sat, Aug 26 · 3:00 PM ET	Portland State at BYU	BYU −30.7	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	VMI at Air Force	Air Force −42.2	>99%
Sun, Sep 3 · TBD	Abilene Christian at New Mexico	New Mexico −26.9	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 10:00 PM ET	Incarnate Word at Fresno State	Fresno State −27.5	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 11:59 PM ET	Western Carolina at Hawaii	Hawaii −23.5	94%
Sat, Sep 2 · 8:30 PM ET	UC Davis at San Diego State	San Diego State −36.8	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Cal Poly at San Jose State	San Jose State −22.2	93%
Sat, Sep 2 · 9:00 PM ET	Howard at UNLV	UNLV −30.7	98%