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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 17.3 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Alabama over Arkansas State21% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upUAB over UTSA28% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upMiami (FL) over Notre Dame32% chance · won 41-8

Upsets

Tue, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
48%
52%
14
24
✓
M-OH −0.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
32%
68%
28
38
✓
BUF −7.1
–
–

Wed, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
57%
43%
30
42
✗
EMU −3.3
–
–

Thu, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
North Carolina@Pittsburgh
37%
63%
34
31
✗
PITT −5.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian State
10%
90%
6
27
✓
APP −19.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
8.1%
92%
20
48
✓
WMU −22.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
59%
41%
10
38
✗
TOL −4.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 2 games

Final
#7Washington@#19Stanford
68%
32%
22
30
✗
WASH −7.8
–
–
Final
BYU@UNLV
50%
50%
31
21
✗
BYU −0.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
7.3%
93%
17
63
✓
NIU −22.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Arkansas@#17LSU
12%
88%
10
33
✓
LSU −18.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Ole Miss
6.6%
93%
22
50
✓
MISS −23.7
–
–
Final
Florida@South Carolina
39%
61%
20
28
✓
SC −3.9
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma State@#25Iowa State
61%
39%
49
42
✓
OKST −5.1
–
–
Final
Texas TechvsBaylor
65%
35%
38
24
✓
TTU −6.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
54%
46%
16
21
✗
DUKE −2.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
71%
29%
24
14
✓
IU −9.2
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Minnesota
42%
58%
21
54
✓
MINN −2.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Ohio State
13%
87%
3
48
✓
OSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#4Penn State
2.6%
97%
6
35
✓
PSU −30.9
–
–
Final
#24NC State@Boston College
60%
40%
17
14
✓
NCSU −4.5
–
–
Final
UConn@#20UCF
2.3%
98%
24
49
✓
UCF −31.6
–
–
Final
#16Virginia Tech@#23Georgia Tech
54%
46%
22
28
✗
VT −2.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Charlotte
77%
23%
35
21
✓
MTSU −12.1
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
56%
44%
64
43
✓
WAKE −2.7
–
–
Final
#3Georgia@#8Auburn
54%
46%
17
40
✗
UGA −2.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas State
48%
52%
28
23
✗
KSU −0.4
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@Maryland
85%
15%
35
10
✓
MICH −16.7
–
–
Final
#21Iowa@#10Wisconsin
28%
72%
14
38
✓
WIS −8.8
–
–
Final
Florida State@#6Clemson
16%
84%
14
31
✓
CLEM −15.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Louisville
25%
75%
21
38
✓
LOU −10.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Louisiana Tech
61%
39%
48
23
✓
FAU −4.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Rice
79%
21%
43
34
✓
USM −13.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
44%
56%
40
43
✓
NAVY −1.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
46%
54%
44
21
✗
VAN −0.9
–
–
Final
#11USC@Colorado
80%
20%
38
24
✓
USC −13.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Texas State
74%
26%
33
30
✓
GAST −10.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
21%
79%
14
59
✓
NEV −12.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Coastal Carolina
89%
11%
42
17
✓
TROY −20.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
14%
86%
10
45
✓
UNT −16.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@South AlabamaUpset
79%
21%
19
24
✗
ARST −13.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Utah
56%
44%
33
25
✓
WSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@#22Texas
1.7%
98%
27
42
✓
TEX −33.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Marshall
32%
68%
23
30
✓
MRSH −6.8
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Tennessee@Missouri
42%
58%
17
50
✓
MIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
#13TCU@#9Oklahoma
38%
62%
20
38
✓
OU −4.6
–
–
Final
#2Notre Dame@#15Miami (FL)
68%
32%
8
41
✗
ND −7.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UCLA
48%
52%
37
44
✓
UCLA −0.4
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona
12%
88%
28
49
✓
ARIZ −18.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
43%
57%
28
14
✗
AF −2.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Colorado State
66%
34%
59
52
✓
BOIS −6.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
82%
18%
31
21
✓
FRES −14.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Temple@Cincinnati
59%
41%
35
24
✓
TEM −4.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
#1Alabama@#18Mississippi State
84%
16%
31
24
✓
ALA −16.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas A&M
9.2%
91%
14
55
✓
TA&M −20.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
36%
64%
13
23
✓
NU −5.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@FIU
37%
63%
37
30
✗
FIU −4.7
–
–
Final
UAB@UTSA
28%
72%
24
19
✗
UTSA −8.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
63%
37%
31
24
✓
TULN −5.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 11 · 4:00 PM ET Maine vs UMass UMass −19.8 90%