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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 83

Wilder than 83% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Dakota over Bowling Green5.5% chance · won 35-27
  • Runner-upNew Hampshire over Georgia Southern6.2% chance · won 22-12
  • Runner-upUTSA over Baylor21% chance · won 17-10

Upsets

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Iowa@Iowa State
54%
46%
44
41
✓
IOWA −2.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Kansas State
3.2%
97%
7
55
✓
KSU −28.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
9.1%
91%
20
56
✓
WVU −20.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Army
7.6%
92%
17
21
✓
ARMY −21.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
48%
52%
17
41
✓
DUKE −0.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#3Michigan
0.8%
99%
14
36
✓
MICH −37.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#15Wisconsin
2.0%
98%
14
31
✓
WIS −31.8
–
–
Final
#18Louisville@North Carolina
61%
39%
47
35
✓
LOU −4.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Boston College
51%
49%
34
10
✓
WAKE −0.8
–
–
Final
Texas State@#20Colorado
1.1%
99%
3
37
✓
COLO −35.7
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
UAB@Ball State
24%
76%
31
51
✓
BALL −10.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#1Alabama
0.2%
>99%
10
41
✓
ALA −44.7
–
–
Final
#23TCU@Arkansas
51%
49%
28
7
✓
TCU −1.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Texas
6.2%
94%
0
56
✓
TEX −23.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
33%
67%
14
28
✓
MSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#7Penn State
7.4%
93%
14
33
✓
PSU −22.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Rutgers
34%
66%
16
13
✗
RUTG −6.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Virginia
51%
49%
34
17
✓
IU −0.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@SyracuseUpset
24%
76%
30
23
✗
SYR −10.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@UMass
63%
37%
17
7
✓
ODU −5.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Navy
10%
90%
21
23
✓
NAVY −19.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kansas
36%
64%
45
27
✗
KU −4.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulsa
14%
86%
42
66
✓
TLSA −16.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Oregon
39%
61%
35
42
✓
ORE −3.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#21UCLA
4.2%
96%
23
56
✓
UCLA −26.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@NC State
9.0%
91%
20
37
✓
NCSU −20.4
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
#11Auburn@#5Clemson
32%
68%
6
14
✓
CLEM −6.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Missouri
46%
54%
31
13
✗
MIZ −1.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@SMU
16%
84%
32
54
✓
SMU −14.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Idaho
32%
68%
44
16
✗
Idaho −6.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Nevada
64%
36%
37
24
✓
TOL −5.8
–
–
Final
#12Georgia@#14Notre Dame
44%
56%
20
19
✗
ND −1.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Louisiana Tech
74%
26%
57
21
✓
MSST −10.3
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@#2Ohio StateUpset
24%
76%
31
16
✗
OSU −10.2
–
–
Final
#13Stanford@#6USC
30%
70%
24
42
✓
USC −7.7
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Minnesota@Oregon State
65%
35%
48
14
✓
MINN −6.3
–
–
Final
Utah@BYU
53%
47%
19
13
✓
UTAH −1.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Arizona
53%
47%
19
16
✓
HOU −1.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Washington State
35%
65%
44
47
✓
WSU −5.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Arizona State
32%
68%
30
20
✗
ASU −6.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#16Oklahoma State@South Alabama
94%
6.1%
44
7
✓
OKST −24.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Purdue
37%
63%
21
44
✓
PUR −4.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
UTSA@BaylorUpset
21%
79%
17
10
✗
BAY −12.2
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Illinois
47%
53%
7
20
✓
ILL −0.8
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
43%
57%
31
14
✗
UTEP −2.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
27%
73%
30
28
✗
UNM −9.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −43.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:30 PM ET Chattanooga at #4 LSU LSU −53.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET UT Martin at Ole Miss Ole Miss −43.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET Indiana State at #22 Tennessee Tennessee −45.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at #19 Texas A&M Texas A&M −45.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET Alabama A&M at #25 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −58.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Towson at Maryland Maryland −39.0 99%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Montana at #8 Washington Washington −45.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 5:00 PM ET Weber State at California California −42.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:30 PM ET Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −10.1 75%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware at #24 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −24.1 94%
Fri, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State vs FIU FIU −15.8 85%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Southern at Southern Miss Southern Miss −33.8 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Villanova at Temple Temple −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Savannah State at Appalachian State Appalachian State −46.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET New Hampshire vs Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −23.5 94%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Alabama State at Troy Troy −25.7 95%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:30 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Akron Akron −12.9 81%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Austin Peay at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −36.3 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −22.8 93%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Howard at Kent State Kent State −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET South Dakota at Bowling Green Bowling Green −24.5 94%
Fri, Sep 8 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Abilene Christian at Colorado State Colorado State −42.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Wyoming Wyoming −28.0 96%