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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 27

Wilder than 27% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas State over Oklahoma State17% chance · won 45-40
  • Runner-upCoastal Carolina over Idaho25% chance · won 13-7
  • Runner-upPurdue over Iowa26% chance · won 24-15

Upsets

Wed, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
84%
16%
66
37
✓
TOL −16.1
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
78%
22%
42
23
✓
CMU −12.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
66%
34%
34
37
✗
OHIO −6.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@USF
13%
87%
20
27
✓
USF −17.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
53%
47%
27
24
✓
EMU −1.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
41%
59%
31
35
✓
NIU −3.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
43%
57%
38
41
✓
WKU −2.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
46%
54%
38
35
✗
UNM −0.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Ball State
75%
25%
40
24
✓
BUF −11.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#19Mississippi State@Arkansas
82%
18%
28
21
✓
MSST −14.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#5Auburn
0.5%
>99%
14
42
✓
AUB −41.5
–
–
Final
#25Texas@West Virginia
51%
49%
28
14
✓
TEX −0.8
–
–
Final
#15TCU@Texas Tech
72%
28%
27
3
✓
TCU −10.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Indiana
31%
70%
0
41
✓
IU −7.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
35%
65%
0
39
✓
NU −5.8
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@#10Wisconsin
36%
64%
10
24
✓
WIS −5.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@#11Miami (FL)
7.6%
92%
28
44
✓
MIA −22.5
–
–
Final
#20UCF@Temple
82%
18%
45
19
✓
UCF −14.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@East Carolina
59%
41%
20
48
✗
CIN −4.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
32%
68%
45
66
✓
MEM −7.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#17Virginia Tech
14%
86%
14
20
✓
VT −17.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Old Dominion
24%
76%
21
24
✓
ODU −10.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wyoming
49%
51%
13
7
✗
FRES −0.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Baylor
77%
23%
23
13
✓
ISU −12.3
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
79%
21%
40
24
✓
ASU −13.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Southern Miss
14%
86%
21
66
✓
USM −16.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
85%
15%
42
21
✓
LT −17.0
–
–
Final
UMass@BYU
32%
68%
16
10
✗
BYU −7.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
4.7%
95%
12
30
✓
ARST −26.5
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Georgia Southern
67%
33%
0
52
✗
USA −7.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah State
19%
81%
0
38
✓
USU −13.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#6Georgia
8.0%
92%
13
42
✓
UGA −22.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#14Oklahoma StateUpset
17%
83%
45
40
✗
OKST −15.1
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Kansas
99%
1.0%
41
3
✓
OU −37.7
–
–
Final
Navy@#7Notre Dame
6.5%
94%
17
24
✓
ND −23.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#22IowaUpset
26%
74%
24
15
✗
IOWA −9.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@#2Ohio State
0.8%
99%
14
52
✓
OSU −38.8
–
–
Final
#21Georgia Tech@DukeUpset
68%
32%
20
43
✗
GT −7.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Louisville
30%
70%
10
56
✓
LOU −8.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado State
3.7%
96%
14
42
✓
CSU −28.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida
8.4%
92%
7
36
✓
FLA −21.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@Michigan State
24%
76%
7
17
✓
MSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#3Penn State
4.2%
96%
44
56
✓
PSU −27.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
74%
26%
17
20
✗
HOU −10.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@IdahoUpset
25%
75%
13
7
✗
Idaho −10.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana
60%
40%
34
47
✗
NMSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Army@North Texas
69%
31%
49
52
✗
ARMY −8.3
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#23NC State@Wake ForestUpset
46%
54%
24
30
✓
WAKE −1.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Vanderbilt
62%
38%
45
17
✓
MIZ −5.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@#12USC
15%
85%
23
28
✓
USC −16.0
–
–
Final
California@#16Stanford
15%
85%
14
17
✓
STAN −16.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Air Force@Boise State
15%
85%
19
44
✓
BOIS −15.8
–
–
Final
Utah@#8Washington
11%
89%
30
33
✓
WASH −19.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego State
12%
88%
23
42
✓
SDSU −18.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Texas A&M@Ole Miss
55%
45%
31
24
✓
TA&M −2.5
–
–
Final
#18LSU@Tennessee
77%
23%
30
10
✓
LSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
47%
53%
28
48
✓
ORE −0.6
–
–
Final
Boston CollegevsUConn
90%
9.6%
39
16
✓
BC −21.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
12%
88%
24
52
✓
FAU −18.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@UTSA
55%
45%
7
9
✗
MRSH −2.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Mercer at #1 Alabama Alabama −55.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 4:00 PM ET Wofford at South Carolina South Carolina −38.9 99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:20 PM ET The Citadel at #4 Clemson Clemson −56.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware State at Florida State Florida State −54.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 3:00 PM ET Western Carolina at North Carolina North Carolina −39.2 99%