The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 46

Wilder than 46% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Oklahoma12% chance · won 38-31
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Michigan14% chance · won 14-10
  • Runner-upUAB over Louisiana Tech19% chance · won 23-22

Upsets

Thu, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@Georgia Southern
81%
19%
43
25
✓
ARST −14.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Memphis@UConn
80%
20%
70
31
✓
MEM −13.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Boise State@BYU
72%
28%
24
7
✓
BOIS −9.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#25Louisville@NC StateUpset
53%
47%
25
39
✗
LOU −1.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Tulsa@Tulane
61%
39%
28
62
✗
TLSA −4.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#11Auburn
12%
88%
23
44
✓
AUB −19.6
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@Vanderbilt
84%
16%
45
14
✓
UGA −16.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7OklahomaUpset
12%
88%
38
31
✗
OU −19.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas
91%
9.2%
65
19
✓
TTU −22.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
17%
83%
16
45
✓
IOWA −15.7
–
–
Final
#4Penn State@Northwestern
87%
13%
31
7
✓
PSU −18.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#2Clemson
13%
87%
14
28
✓
CLEM −18.6
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
72%
28%
34
10
✓
TEM −9.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
37%
63%
15
20
✓
TOL −5.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
66%
34%
21
28
✗
DUKE −6.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
49%
51%
24
27
✓
SYR −0.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
28%
72%
26
23
✗
OHIO −9.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)Upset
21%
79%
37
29
✗
M-OH −13.6
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
28%
72%
17
37
✓
MTSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
67%
33%
45
27
✓
ULM −7.1
–
–
Final
#23LSU@#19Florida
45%
55%
17
16
✗
FLA −2.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#13TCU
24%
76%
24
31
✓
TCU −11.6
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@North Carolina
86%
14%
33
10
✓
ND −18.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
57%
43%
17
31
✗
MINN −2.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
36%
64%
45
48
✓
NAVY −6.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Appalachian State
24%
76%
31
45
✓
APP −11.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Akron
38%
62%
3
31
✓
AKR −5.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
17%
83%
3
24
✓
NIU −15.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
80%
20%
71
68
✓
WMU −13.6
–
–
Final
#16Miami (FL)@#15Florida State
44%
56%
24
20
✗
FSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@South Carolina
46%
54%
22
48
✓
SC −1.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#9USC
1.9%
98%
10
38
✓
USC −34.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#3Ohio State
8.4%
92%
14
62
✓
OSU −22.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UABUpset
81%
19%
22
23
✗
LT −14.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
72%
28%
27
14
✓
CSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Idaho
36%
64%
21
16
✗
Idaho −5.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Charlotte
87%
13%
14
3
✓
MRSH −18.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Old Dominion
62%
38%
58
28
✓
FAU −5.0
–
–
Final
Army@Rice
85%
15%
49
12
✓
ARMY −16.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Coastal Carolina
76%
24%
27
21
✓
GAST −11.4
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Kansas State@#24Texas
42%
58%
34
40
✓
TEX −3.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTSA
36%
64%
31
29
✗
UTSA −6.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Houston
44%
56%
22
35
✓
HOU −2.7
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@Texas A&M
95%
5.0%
27
19
✓
ALA −27.1
–
–
Final
#18Virginia Tech@Boston College
84%
16%
23
10
✓
VT −16.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kentucky
31%
69%
34
40
✓
UK −8.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5MichiganUpset
14%
86%
14
10
✗
MICH −18.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
84%
16%
27
10
✓
FRES −16.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#17Stanford@Utah
69%
31%
23
20
✓
STAN −8.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
55%
45%
21
35
✗
HAW −2.1
–
–
Final
California@#6Washington
7.9%
92%
7
38
✓
WASH −23.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
78%
22%
41
10
✓
SDSU −12.7
–
–

Sun, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Arizona@Colorado
35%
65%
45
42
✗
COLO −6.6
–
–
Final
#21Washington State@Oregon
53%
47%
33
10
✓
WSU −1.1
–
–
Final
#12Wisconsin@Nebraska
79%
21%
38
17
✓
WIS −13.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@UTEP
90%
10%
15
14
✓
WKU −21.2
–
–
Final
#22UCF@Cincinnati
90%
9.7%
51
23
✓
UCF −21.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · 3:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Indiana Indiana −44.0 >99%