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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2017

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 68

Wilder than 68% of weeks in the archive.

22 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockMichigan State over Penn State14% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upIowa over Ohio State14% chance · won 55-24
  • Runner-upVirginia over Georgia Tech20% chance · won 40-36

Upsets

Wed, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
47%
53%
44
16
✗
KENT −0.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
32%
68%
28
45
✓
OHIO −6.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
13%
87%
14
56
✓
EMU −17.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
33%
67%
17
27
✓
TOL −6.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Idaho@Troy
11%
89%
21
24
✓
TROY −19.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Western MichiganUpset
24%
76%
35
28
✗
WMU −10.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Marshall@Florida Atlantic
37%
63%
25
30
✓
FAU −4.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@Utah
53%
47%
17
48
✗
UCLA −1.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Navy@Temple
66%
34%
26
34
✗
NAVY −6.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
UMass@#16Mississippi State
2.3%
98%
23
34
✓
MSST −31.7
–
–
Final
Florida@Missouri
66%
34%
16
45
✗
FLA −6.8
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@Texas A&M
76%
24%
42
27
✓
AUB −11.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Vanderbilt
25%
75%
17
31
✓
VAN −10.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas
78%
22%
38
9
✓
BAY −12.7
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
47%
53%
42
35
✗
TTU −0.6
–
–
Final
#11Wisconsin@Indiana
82%
18%
45
17
✓
WIS −15.1
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Michigan StateUpset
86%
14%
24
27
✗
PSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
16%
84%
10
29
✓
PUR −15.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Houston
8.5%
92%
27
52
✓
HOU −21.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#25Florida State
28%
72%
24
27
✓
FSU −8.9
–
–

Afternoon 25 games

Final
#22Georgia Tech@VirginiaUpset
80%
20%
36
40
✗
GT −13.8
–
–
Final
Rice@UAB
30%
70%
21
52
✓
UAB −7.9
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
78%
22%
45
52
✗
APP −12.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Georgia Southern
68%
32%
21
17
✓
GAST −8.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Texas State
76%
24%
45
35
✓
NMSU −11.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#5Georgia
11%
89%
10
24
✓
UGA −19.3
–
–
Final
#23Iowa State@West VirginiaUpset
56%
44%
16
20
✗
ISU −2.8
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
45%
55%
21
0
✗
AF −1.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#4Notre Dame
11%
89%
37
48
✓
ND −19.5
–
–
Final
#17Stanford@Washington StateUpset
55%
45%
21
24
✗
STAN −2.7
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@IowaUpset
86%
14%
24
55
✗
OSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Nebraska
56%
44%
31
24
✓
NU −2.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
58%
42%
24
31
✗
MD −3.6
–
–
Final
#6Clemson@#24NC State
76%
24%
38
31
✓
CLEM −11.7
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Old Dominion
27%
73%
0
6
✓
ODU −9.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
29%
71%
24
23
✗
LT −8.2
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
93%
7.4%
37
20
✓
USF −23.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Arkansas
3.7%
96%
38
39
✓
ARK −28.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
45%
55%
37
34
✗
UK −1.3
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@#10Oklahoma State
47%
53%
62
52
✗
OKST −0.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Tulane
41%
59%
17
16
✗
TULN −3.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
27%
73%
19
14
✗
USA −9.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
20%
80%
23
37
✓
CAL −13.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
54%
46%
24
10
✓
USU −2.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
30%
70%
23
31
✓
UNLV −7.9
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
UTSA@FIU
68%
32%
7
14
✗
UTSA −7.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Boise State
7.3%
93%
14
41
✓
BOIS −22.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
59%
41%
13
16
✗
CSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#21Texas@#15TCU
36%
64%
7
24
✓
TCU −5.3
–
–
Final
#20UCF@SMU
76%
24%
31
24
✓
UCF −11.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tennessee
18%
82%
10
24
✓
TENN −14.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@Middle Tennessee
15%
85%
3
30
✓
MTSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#14Michigan
15%
85%
10
33
✓
MICH −15.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona State
43%
57%
30
41
✓
ASU −2.3
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Oregon@#7Washington
12%
88%
3
38
✓
WASH −18.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
94%
6.3%
52
7
✓
SDSU −24.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@#12USC
19%
81%
35
49
✓
USC −13.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Fresno State
25%
75%
13
20
✓
FRES −10.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@Tulsa
70%
30%
41
14
✓
MEM −8.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#18LSU@#1Alabama
9.7%
90%
10
24
✓
ALA −20.4
–
–
Final
#13Virginia Tech@#19Miami (FL)
53%
47%
10
28
✗
VT −1.7
–
–