The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 20 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 37

Wilder than 37% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 5.4 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Air Force24% chance · won 33-28
  • Runner-upLSU over Arkansas25% chance · won 35-10
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Pittsburgh37% chance · won 52-21

Upsets

Thu, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
38%
62%
20
23
✓
MSST −4.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
#18Arkansas@LSUUpset
75%
25%
10
35
✗
ARK −11.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@#13Marshall
4.6%
95%
3
34
✓
MRSH −26.6
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Colorado
80%
20%
33
30
✓
NEB −14.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@USC
39%
61%
19
45
✓
USC −4.1
–
–
Final
#11Texas@#15Texas A&M
42%
58%
16
20
✓
TA&M −2.8
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
16%
84%
0
21
✓
TCU −15.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@#2Virginia Tech
3.2%
97%
14
38
✓
VT −29.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 12 games

Final
Arizona@Arizona State
43%
57%
27
42
✓
ASU −2.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
89%
11%
35
17
✓
CSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Georgia@#14Georgia Tech
19%
80%
48
51
✓
GT −13.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#12Miami (FL)
26%
74%
13
45
✓
MIA −9.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@New MexicoUpset
76%
24%
28
33
✗
AF −11.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#20Oklahoma
23%
77%
7
44
✓
OU −11.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
42%
58%
7
39
✓
SDSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Stanford
40%
60%
37
40
✓
STAN −3.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#5Tennessee
3.1%
97%
10
38
✓
TENN −29.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@North Texas
55%
45%
34
7
✓
USU −2.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@Hawaii
42%
58%
22
14
✗
HAW −2.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
37%
63%
52
21
✗
PITT −4.7
–
–