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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockTulsa over UTEP13% chance · won 43-19
  • Runner-upWyoming over Utah14% chance · won 43-29
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Penn State16% chance · won 24-23

Upsets

Thu, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
27%
73%
22
23
✓
MSST −9.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Army@Air Force
12%
88%
0
28
✓
AF −18.4
–
–
Final
LSU@#19Alabama
12%
88%
17
23
✓
ALA −18.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UAB
69%
31%
17
36
✗
ECU −8.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@USCUpset
24%
76%
26
16
✗
USC −10.6
–
–
Final
UCF@Auburn
24%
76%
10
28
✓
AUB −10.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Boise State
26%
74%
10
63
✓
BOIS −9.9
–
–
Final
#25BYU@San Diego State
59%
41%
30
7
✓
BYU −4.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Clemson
14%
86%
7
58
✓
CLEM −16.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
68%
32%
36
22
✓
CSU −8.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
18%
82%
21
31
✓
EMU −14.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#5Florida
2.9%
97%
6
13
✓
FLA −30.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Fresno State
37%
63%
18
47
✓
FRES −4.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
34%
66%
62
41
✗
SJSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
33%
67%
31
36
✓
HOU −6.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@Nevada
43%
57%
42
33
✗
NEV −2.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
60%
40%
40
24
✓
ILL −4.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas
19%
81%
10
45
✓
KU −13.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#3Kansas State
7.2%
93%
14
20
✓
KSU −23.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana Tech
4.9%
95%
17
58
✓
LT −26.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
46%
54%
23
13
✗
CIN −0.9
–
–
Final
#11Marshall@Kent State
98%
2.0%
28
16
✓
MRSH −33.3
–
–
Final
#15Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
65%
35%
33
3
✓
MIA −6.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
21%
79%
23
32
✓
M-OH −12.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#10Michigan
4.7%
95%
3
37
✓
MICH −26.4
–
–
Final
#14Ohio State@#18Michigan State
41%
59%
7
23
✓
MSU −3.3
–
–
Final
#24Minnesota@#6Penn StateUpset
16%
84%
24
23
✗
PSU −15.6
–
–
Final
#13Arkansas@Ole MissUpset
54%
46%
16
38
✗
ARK −2.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
71%
29%
34
7
✓
NAVY −9.5
–
–
Final
#17Texas A&M@#4Nebraska
18%
82%
0
37
✓
NEB −14.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
52%
48%
14
6
✓
NMSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
48%
52%
17
30
✓
NCSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Missouri@Oklahoma
26%
74%
0
37
✓
OU −10.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon
11%
89%
10
52
✓
ORE −19.4
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
24%
76%
7
17
✓
ORST −10.7
–
–
Final
#23Southern Miss@Memphis
51%
49%
20
5
✓
USM −1.0
–
–
Final
Temple@#20Syracuse
6.4%
94%
10
27
✓
SYR −23.9
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@#7Tennessee
20%
80%
14
38
✓
TENN −12.9
–
–
Final
#16Texas@Oklahoma State
64%
36%
34
21
✓
TEX −6.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas Tech
37%
63%
16
28
✓
TTU −4.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
58%
42%
32
13
✓
TOL −3.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEPUpset
13%
87%
43
19
✗
UTEP −17.3
–
–
Final
#9Georgia Tech@VirginiaUpset
64%
36%
38
45
✗
GT −6.0
–
–
Final
#2Virginia Tech@West Virginia
86%
14%
22
20
✓
VT −18.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
60%
40%
19
3
✓
WAKE −4.3
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona
41%
59%
33
25
✗
ARIZ −3.0
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@#12Purdue
48%
52%
28
21
✗
PUR −0.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#22UtahUpset
14%
86%
43
29
✗
UTAH −16.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 6 · TBD Hofstra at Buffalo Hofstra −4.8 61%
Sat, Nov 6 · TBD UT Martin at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −9.6 74%