The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 88

Wilder than 88% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over UCLA11% chance · won 17-0
  • Runner-upArizona State over Washington14% chance · won 28-7
  • Runner-upSMU over Fresno State16% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
11%
89%
13
38
✓
MRSH −18.9
–
–
Final
84%
16%
14
24
✗
FRES −16.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
38%
62%
25
55
✓
AKR −4.2
–
–
Final
47%
53%
30
24
✗
MISS −0.8
–
–
Final
42%
58%
24
21
✗
CIN −2.7
–
–
Final
19%
82%
21
34
✓
ARIZ −13.9
–
–
Final
14%
86%
28
7
✗
WASH −16.9
–
–
Final
5.5%
94%
14
48
✓
ARK −25.3
–
–
Final
54%
46%
16
20
✗
PITT −2.1
–
–
Final
73%
27%
31
7
✓
BYU −10.3
–
–
Final
11%
89%
17
0
✗
UCLA −19.2
–
–
Final
43%
57%
42
30
✗
MD −2.5
–
–
Final
43%
57%
26
27
✓
EMU −2.2
–
–
Final
77%
23%
32
14
✓
FLA −12.1
–
–
Final
3.3%
97%
10
33
✓
FSU −29.1
–
–
Final
63%
37%
27
17
✓
UGA −5.7
–
–
Final
89%
11%
38
31
✓
GT −20.1
–
–
Final
31%
70%
20
12
✗
UNC −7.7
–
–
Final
46%
54%
30
24
✗
ARST −1.3
–
–
Final
23%
77%
24
21
✗
MIZ −11.3
–
–
Final
1.5%
98%
0
40
✓
KSU −34.7
–
–
Final
35%
65%
5
31
✓
UK −5.6
–
–
Final
3.6%
96%
18
42
✓
LT −28.5
–
–
Final
37%
63%
32
31
✗
MEM −4.7
–
–
Final
93%
7.0%
17
10
✓
M-OH −24.0
–
–
Final
48%
52%
37
7
✗
ILL −0.5
–
–
Final
60%
40%
10
17
✗
BOIS −4.5
–
–
Final
34%
66%
31
27
✗
CMU −5.9
–
–
Final
41%
59%
21
23
✓
NU −3.2
–
–
Final
35%
65%
24
25
✓
ND −5.7
–
–
Final
26%
74%
10
23
✓
PSU −9.6
–
–
Final
53%
47%
28
52
✗
MSU −1.6
–
–
Final
26%
74%
7
49
✓
RICE −10.1
–
–
Final
30%
70%
17
10
✗
CSU −7.7
–
–
Final
5.1%
95%
0
24
✓
USM −25.8
–
–
Final
34%
66%
17
21
✓
STAN −6.0
–
–
Final
2.2%
98%
17
34
✓
TA&M −32.0
–
–
Final
14%
86%
17
56
✓
TCU −16.9
–
–
Final
63%
37%
10
31
✗
COLO −5.9
–
–
Final
2.8%
97%
32
48
✓
TULN −30.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
21
15
✗
AF −2.7
–
–
Final
48%
52%
47
26
✗
NCSU −0.5
–
–
Final
34%
66%
0
62
✓
VT −6.2
–
–
Final
10%
90%
16
62
✓
WVU −20.0
–
–
Final
2.2%
98%
17
45
✓
WMU −31.9
–
–
Final
8.8%
91%
0
59
✓
WIS −21.2
–
–
Final
85%
15%
38
20
✓
WYO −16.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 16 · TBD Nicholls at UCF UCF −47.5 >99%