The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 74

Wilder than 74% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.0 expected

  • Biggest shockFurman over North Carolina3.1% chance · won 28-3
  • Runner-upBoston College over Syracuse8.9% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upDuke over Maryland15% chance · won 25-22

Upsets

Thu, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#21Utah@Colorado StateUpset
59%
41%
24
31
✗
UTAH −4.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 52 games

Final
#20Southern Miss@#25Alabama
42%
58%
14
35
✓
ALA −2.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCLA
39%
61%
33
7
✗
UCLA −4.1
–
–
Final
Auburn@#22Arkansas
21%
79%
10
34
✓
ARK −12.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
17%
83%
27
31
✓
ARST −14.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@Utah State
43%
57%
33
27
✗
USU −2.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@#13SyracuseUpset
8.9%
91%
24
23
✗
SYR −21.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
35%
65%
7
31
✓
BGSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@BYU
32%
68%
20
27
✓
BYU −6.7
–
–
Final
USC@California
68%
32%
7
17
✗
USC −7.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@UCF
29%
71%
6
31
✓
UCF −8.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)Upset
24%
76%
52
42
✗
M-OH −11.0
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
50%
50%
12
3
✗
CLEM −0.3
–
–
Final
#23Oklahoma@ColoradoUpset
57%
43%
24
38
✗
OU −3.3
–
–
Final
Duke@MarylandUpset
16%
84%
25
22
✗
MD −15.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Houston
57%
43%
19
3
✓
ECU −3.3
–
–
Final
Georgia@#5Florida
11%
89%
14
30
✓
FLA −19.1
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Virginia
75%
25%
35
10
✓
FSU −11.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Tulsa
76%
24%
28
14
✓
FRES −12.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#10Georgia Tech
11%
89%
21
48
✓
GT −19.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#2Kansas State
0.4%
>99%
7
48
✓
KSU −42.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
22%
78%
20
41
✓
KENT −11.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Toledo
55%
44%
34
17
✓
LT −2.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
28%
72%
0
10
✓
ULM −8.6
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisville
24%
76%
14
23
✓
LOU −11.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#11Marshall
3.0%
97%
9
41
✓
MRSH −29.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
40%
60%
49
7
✗
TULN −3.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#15Miami (FL)
15%
85%
20
28
✓
MIA −16.1
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@Indiana
86%
14%
34
31
✓
MICH −17.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@LSU
51%
49%
42
23
✓
MISS −1.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Missouri
42%
58%
7
34
✓
MIZ −2.8
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Kansas
95%
5.1%
24
17
✓
NEB −26.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Nevada
27%
73%
28
41
✓
NEV −9.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
30%
70%
6
27
✓
UNM −8.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@New Mexico State
45%
55%
14
42
✓
NMSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Navy@#19Notre Dame
7.4%
93%
24
28
✓
ND −22.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
67%
33%
37
25
✓
OHIO −7.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@#17Ohio State
6.1%
94%
11
41
✓
OSU −24.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon
20%
80%
17
20
✓
ORE −12.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
62%
38%
27
13
✓
ORST −5.5
–
–
Final
#6Penn State@Illinois
80%
20%
27
7
✓
PSU −13.8
–
–
Final
#12Purdue@#24Minnesota
49%
51%
33
28
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Rice@SMUUpset
78%
22%
2
27
✗
RICE −12.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Temple
22%
78%
28
56
✓
TEM −11.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#7Tennessee
1.2%
99%
7
30
✓
TENN −36.0
–
–
Final
#14Texas@Iowa State
74%
26%
44
41
✓
TEX −10.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#18Texas A&M
19%
81%
3
21
✓
TA&M −13.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Hawaii
68%
32%
34
14
✓
TCU −7.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UTEP
29%
71%
26
42
✓
UTEP −8.2
–
–
Final
#1Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
87%
13%
30
17
✓
VT −18.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington
35%
65%
30
35
✓
WASH −5.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
43%
57%
24
10
✗
AKR −2.2
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@Northwestern
90%
9.7%
35
19
✓
WIS −21.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 30 · TBD Furman at North Carolina North Carolina −29.5 97%