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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 21

Wilder than 21% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Northern Illinois2.4% chance · won 27-21
  • Runner-upArizona over TCU29% chance · won 35-31
  • Runner-upLouisville over Kentucky31% chance · won 56-28

Upsets

Thu, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Maryland@Temple
50%
50%
6
0
✗
MD −0.4
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@Michigan StateUpset
45%
55%
20
27
✓
MSU −1.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@North Texas
38%
62%
26
3
✗
UNT −4.2
–
–
Final
#15Syracuse@Toledo
62%
38%
35
12
✓
SYR −5.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 37 games

Final
Alabama@Vanderbilt
62%
38%
28
17
✓
ALA −5.0
–
–
Final
#21Arkansas@SMU
59%
41%
26
0
✓
ARK −4.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Boston College
36%
64%
29
30
✓
BC −4.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@California
24%
76%
7
21
✓
CAL −10.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Cincinnati
24%
76%
3
41
✓
CIN −10.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Colorado State
39%
61%
14
41
✓
CSU −3.7
–
–
Final
#23West Virginia@East CarolinaUpset
62%
38%
23
30
✗
WVU −5.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#7Florida
14%
86%
26
55
✓
FLA −16.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Georgia
19%
81%
7
38
✓
UGA −13.3
–
–
Final
#22Georgia Tech@Navy
68%
32%
49
14
✓
GT −7.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
47%
53%
3
28
✓
HOU −0.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Illinois
29%
71%
3
41
✓
ILL −8.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
22%
78%
9
21
✓
IU −11.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@LSU
15%
85%
21
29
✓
LSU −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
31%
69%
56
28
✗
UK −7.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Clemson
46%
54%
13
10
✗
CLEM −1.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northwestern
57%
43%
28
3
✓
M-OH −3.4
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#16Michigan
32%
68%
22
26
✓
MICH −6.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Minnesota
33%
67%
7
33
✓
MINN −6.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
54%
46%
3
0
✓
MISS −2.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Mississippi State
7.8%
92%
7
40
✓
MSST −21.7
–
–
Final
UAB@#24Missouri
16%
84%
28
31
✓
MIZ −14.9
–
–
Final
#8Nebraska@Iowa
68%
32%
42
7
✓
NEB −7.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@NC State
43%
57%
0
10
✓
NCSU −2.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Oklahoma State
13%
87%
7
24
✓
OKST −17.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Nevada
46%
54%
28
13
✗
NEV −1.1
–
–
Final
Akron@#3Penn State
8.7%
91%
24
70
✓
PSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Pittsburgh
45%
55%
10
30
✓
PITT −1.3
–
–
Final
#13Purdue@UCF
52%
48%
47
13
✓
PUR −1.3
–
–
Final
#19USC@Hawaii
91%
9.1%
62
7
✓
USC −21.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#5Tennessee
18%
82%
17
42
✓
TENN −13.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@Texas
48%
52%
17
69
✓
TEX −0.3
–
–
Final
#12Texas A&M@Louisiana Tech
90%
9.7%
37
17
✓
TA&M −20.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
36%
64%
10
13
✓
UTEP −4.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@#9UCLA
9.4%
91%
7
38
✓
UCLA −20.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington State
50%
50%
27
7
✗
UTAH −0.5
–
–
Final
#20Virginia@North Carolina
49%
51%
20
17
✗
UVA −0.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona@TCU
29%
71%
35
31
✗
TCU −7.9
–
–

Mon, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Texas Tech@Arizona State
42%
58%
13
31
✓
ASU −2.8
–
–
Final
#17Tulane@#25Southern Miss
45%
55%
14
48
✓
USM −1.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 2 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Central Michigan Central Michigan −18.9 89%
Thu, Sep 2 · TBD Eastern Washington at Idaho Idaho −18.9 89%
Thu, Sep 2 · TBD Indiana State at Iowa State Iowa State −41.2 >99%
Thu, Sep 2 · TBD New Mexico Highlands at New Mexico State New Mexico State −17.6 88%
Thu, Sep 2 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Villanova at #14 Air Force Air Force −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Appalachian State at Auburn Auburn −4.5 63%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Portland State at Fresno State Fresno State −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −28.3 97%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Florida A&M at #2 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −37.4 99%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD USF at San Diego State San Diego State −18.0 88%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Missouri State at Tulsa Tulsa −13.1 81%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD James Madison at #11 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −22.4 93%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD Murray State at #10 Wisconsin Wisconsin −36.9 99%