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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 22

Wilder than 22% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Iowa over Ohio4.3% chance · won 36-21
  • Runner-upTroy over Cincinnati21% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upClemson over Virginia31% chance · won 33-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Washington@BYU
43%
57%
28
35
✓
BYU −2.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
Akron@Buffalo
52%
48%
17
10
✓
AKR −1.2
–
–
Final
Houston@Alabama
34%
66%
10
37
✓
ALA −5.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Arizona
1.6%
98%
19
34
✓
ARIZ −33.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@Auburn
5.4%
95%
23
30
✓
AUB −24.6
–
–
Final
#25Virginia@ClemsonUpset
69%
31%
14
33
✗
UVA −8.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado
18%
82%
35
63
✓
COLO −14.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@#19Colorado State
8.2%
92%
33
38
✓
CSU −21.3
–
–
Final
Duke@East Carolina
30%
70%
9
27
✓
ECU −7.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#7Florida
7.2%
93%
27
58
✓
FLA −22.3
–
–
Final
#13Georgia Tech@#1Florida State
24%
76%
35
41
✓
FSU −10.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#24Georgia
12%
88%
9
24
✓
UGA −17.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Illinois
51%
49%
10
38
✗
SDSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
47%
53%
10
17
✓
ISU −0.7
–
–
Final
Temple@#23Kansas State
4.5%
96%
0
40
✓
KSU −26.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@LSU
4.9%
95%
0
52
✓
LSU −25.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#18Michigan
8.7%
91%
3
37
✓
MICH −20.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
8.7%
91%
7
51
✓
MSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Minnesota
3.0%
97%
0
35
✓
MINN −29.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
4.4%
96%
14
38
✓
MISS −26.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
12%
88%
10
13
✓
MSST −17.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Kent State
73%
27%
48
28
✓
NAVY −10.0
–
–
Final
California@#3Nebraska
6.6%
93%
0
45
✓
NEB −23.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Baylor
33%
67%
27
24
✗
BAY −6.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
48%
52%
35
28
✗
UNM −0.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Indiana
52%
48%
42
30
✓
UNC −1.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Northwestern
59%
41%
7
17
✗
TCU −4.1
–
–
Final
#10UCLA@#8Ohio State
36%
64%
20
42
✓
OSU −5.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
27%
73%
9
46
✓
OKST −8.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Oregon
9.5%
90%
28
47
✓
ORE −19.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
22%
78%
23
46
✓
ORST −11.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#2Penn State
4.7%
95%
17
20
✓
PSU −25.7
–
–
Final
#17Notre Dame@#5Purdue
25%
75%
23
28
✓
PUR −10.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
43%
57%
17
54
✓
STAN −2.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#9Syracuse
2.8%
97%
7
47
✓
SYR −29.4
–
–
Final
#21Texas@Rutgers
90%
10%
38
21
✓
TEX −19.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Louisiana
81%
19%
38
17
✓
TTU −14.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
19%
81%
19
53
✓
TULN −13.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Vanderbilt
16%
84%
31
34
✓
VAN −15.0
–
–
Final
UAB@#11Virginia Tech
5.5%
94%
10
31
✓
VT −24.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Army
43%
57%
34
15
✗
ARMY −2.1
–
–
Final
#22Miami (OH)@West VirginiaUpset
52%
48%
27
43
✗
M-OH −1.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@#20Wisconsin
3.1%
97%
10
50
✓
WIS −28.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Southern Utah at Boise State Boise State −13.5 82%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Bowling Green Bowling Green −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Hawaii Hawaii −5.1 64%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Kansas Kansas −21.7 92%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD UConn at Kentucky Kentucky −16.5 86%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −13.3 81%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Chattanooga at Louisville Louisville −36.9 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Liberty at Marshall Marshall −23.7 94%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Western Carolina at Maryland Maryland −24.3 94%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD William & Mary at NC State NC State −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Northern Iowa at Ohio Ohio −26.3 96%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Indiana State at Oklahoma Oklahoma −59.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Northwestern State at #15 Southern Miss Southern Miss −46.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Troy at Cincinnati Cincinnati −12.0 79%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Utah State Utah State −17.9 88%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Youngstown State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −22.1 93%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD Weber State at Wyoming Wyoming −37.6 99%