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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 27

Wilder than 27% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockBoston College over Notre Dame21% chance · won 31-29
  • Runner-upBowling Green over UCF25% chance · won 33-30
  • Runner-upGeorgia over Ole Miss27% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Thu, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
44%
56%
21
41
✓
CSU −1.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
#19Alabama@Auburn
56%
44%
28
17
✓
ALA −2.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulane
43%
57%
23
20
✗
TULN −2.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#18Arkansas
28%
72%
9
14
✓
ARK −8.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Idaho
48%
52%
45
14
✗
Idaho −0.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Notre DameUpset
21%
79%
31
29
✗
ND −12.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@UCF
26%
74%
33
30
✗
UCF −10.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
52%
48%
27
21
✓
CMU −1.1
–
–
Final
#22Clemson@South Carolina
85%
15%
31
21
✓
CLEM −17.0
–
–
Final
NC State@East Carolina
24%
76%
6
23
✓
ECU −10.9
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@#6Florida
53%
47%
30
23
✓
FSU −1.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
11%
89%
12
63
✓
FRES −19.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Ole Miss
27%
73%
20
17
✗
MISS −9.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Hawaii
59%
41%
41
48
✗
NAVY −4.2
–
–
Final
Houston@Army
57%
43%
26
14
✓
HOU −3.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
12%
88%
7
29
✓
ILL −18.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
44%
56%
28
31
✓
KU −1.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@#4Kansas State
4.6%
95%
0
66
✓
KSU −26.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
49%
51%
21
13
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#15Miami (FL)
1.2%
99%
0
55
✓
MIA −35.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
1.0%
99%
0
43
✓
M-OH −36.9
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#9Michigan
21%
78%
17
24
✓
MICH −12.2
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@#11Michigan State
46%
54%
28
35
✓
MSU −1.3
–
–
Final
#21Minnesota@Iowa
84%
16%
25
21
✓
MINN −16.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@New Mexico State
16%
84%
9
22
✓
NMSU −15.8
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
42%
58%
0
38
✓
UNC −2.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
23
30
✓
NIU −3.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
84%
16%
34
14
✓
OKST −16.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#23Oregon
28%
72%
14
25
✓
ORE −8.9
–
–
Final
#16Purdue@Indiana
80%
20%
30
24
✓
PUR −13.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
72%
28%
37
7
✓
SDSU −9.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@USC
26%
74%
7
17
✓
USC −9.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
52%
48%
28
14
✓
SMU −1.2
–
–
Final
#20Southern Miss@Louisville
57%
43%
30
27
✓
USM −3.3
–
–
Final
California@Stanford
22%
78%
13
31
✓
STAN −11.6
–
–
Final
#5Tennessee@Kentucky
74%
26%
56
21
✓
TENN −10.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@TCU
19%
81%
24
52
✓
TCU −13.3
–
–
Final
#17Oklahoma@Texas TechUpset
73%
27%
28
38
✗
OU −10.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
41%
59%
21
45
✓
TOL −3.3
–
–
Final
#24Utah@#25BYU
38%
62%
20
17
✗
BYU −4.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Nevada
38%
62%
37
35
✗
NEV −4.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Maryland
51%
49%
34
30
✓
UVA −0.9
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@Temple
96%
3.7%
62
7
✓
VT −29.1
–
–
Final
#12Georgia Tech@Wake ForestUpset
69%
31%
23
26
✗
GT −8.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@Washington
11%
89%
14
24
✓
WASH −19.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
13%
87%
28
42
✓
WYO −17.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Wofford at Louisiana Louisiana −8.2 71%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD East Tennessee State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −9.0 72%