The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockHawaii over SMU12% chance · won 20-0
  • Runner-upWyoming over Air Force14% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Auburn24% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Clemson@#14Virginia Tech
20%
80%
11
31
✓
VT −14.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
#17Arkansas@AlabamaUpset
56%
44%
28
35
✗
ARK −2.6
–
–
Final
Houston@UAB
56%
44%
10
29
✗
HOU −2.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
69%
31%
30
24
✓
ARIZ −8.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Army
26%
74%
21
41
✓
ARMY −10.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Boise State
64%
36%
9
20
✗
UNM −5.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
64%
36%
27
7
✓
BC −5.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@California
46%
54%
23
24
✓
CAL −1.9
–
–
Final
#12Miami (FL)@East CarolinaUpset
67%
33%
23
27
✗
MIA −7.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
50%
50%
17
38
✓
EMU −0.1
–
–
Final
#7Florida@Kentucky
78%
22%
38
10
✓
FLA −12.7
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@North Carolina
80%
20%
42
10
✓
FSU −13.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
47%
53%
49
24
✗
NEV −1.5
–
–
Final
UCF@#24Georgia
13%
87%
23
24
✓
UGA −18.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@SMUUpset
12%
88%
20
0
✗
SMU −19.6
–
–
Final
#3Kansas State@Iowa State
85%
15%
35
28
✓
KSU −17.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
75%
25%
27
41
✗
BGSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
43%
57%
31
45
✓
UL −2.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Marshall
6.9%
93%
0
34
✓
MRSH −24.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
84%
16%
24
16
✓
M-OH −16.3
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@#25Wisconsin
55%
45%
21
16
✓
MICH −2.2
–
–
Final
#15Michigan State@Illinois
65%
35%
27
10
✓
MSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@AuburnUpset
24%
76%
24
17
✗
AUB −12.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Mississippi State
14%
86%
0
17
✓
MSST −18.2
–
–
Final
#2Nebraska@Missouri
76%
24%
40
10
✓
NEB −11.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
18%
82%
6
45
✓
OHIO −15.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#5Ohio State
5.0%
95%
20
34
✓
OSU −27.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Louisville
37%
63%
42
21
✗
LOU −5.5
–
–
Final
#19USC@#16Oregon
34%
66%
30
33
✓
ORE −7.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#10Penn State
5.7%
94%
24
45
✓
PSU −26.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#8Purdue
5.4%
95%
23
31
✓
PUR −26.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Rice
32%
68%
17
20
✓
RICE −7.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Kansas
57%
43%
41
13
✓
SDSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@San Jose State
42%
58%
10
34
✓
SJSU −3.7
–
–
Final
#23UCLA@StanfordUpset
58%
42%
32
42
✗
UCLA −3.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#13Syracuse
19%
81%
7
30
✓
SYR −14.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@#6Tennessee
4.8%
95%
16
17
✓
TENN −27.7
–
–
Final
#20Texas@Baylor
82%
18%
62
0
✓
TEX −15.2
–
–
Final
#18Southern Miss@#4Texas A&M
27%
73%
6
23
✓
TA&M −10.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Arkansas State
72%
28%
24
21
✓
TCU −9.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
65%
35%
23
54
✗
NMSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
75%
25%
52
14
✓
UTAH −11.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Duke
38%
62%
31
14
✗
DUKE −5.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@BYU
43%
57%
45
40
✗
BYU −3.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
55%
45%
7
31
✗
NCSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington
51%
49%
24
31
✗
COLO −0.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
72%
28%
24
21
✓
WMU −9.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#21Air ForceUpset
14%
86%
10
7
✗
AF −18.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −18.3 86%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD UMass at Toledo Toledo −18.4 86%