The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 78

Wilder than 78% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Michigan5.2% chance · won 35-29
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Toledo20% chance · won 20-13
  • Runner-upStanford over USC21% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Sat, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Akron@Navy
34%
66%
35
29
✗
NAVY −5.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona State
25%
75%
21
33
✓
ASU −10.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
46%
54%
14
10
✗
UNT −1.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Army
42%
58%
18
35
✓
ARMY −2.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Boise State
45%
55%
17
52
✓
BOIS −1.7
–
–
Final
BYU@UNLV
81%
19%
29
0
✓
BYU −14.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
46%
54%
16
12
✗
ISU −1.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
46%
54%
24
13
✗
WYO −1.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
35%
65%
7
52
✓
ECU −5.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@ToledoUpset
20%
80%
20
13
✗
TOL −12.8
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Clemson
79%
21%
17
14
✓
FSU −13.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@Fresno State
22%
78%
23
24
✓
FRES −12.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Georgia
38%
62%
34
49
✓
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Tulsa
39%
61%
35
21
✗
TLSA −4.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Idaho
39%
61%
3
31
✓
Idaho −4.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@#6MichiganUpset
5.2%
95%
35
29
✗
MICH −25.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Iowa
39%
61%
38
31
✗
IOWA −4.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
71%
29%
0
21
✗
MIZ −9.1
–
–
Final
#4Kansas State@Oklahoma State
79%
21%
44
21
✓
KSU −13.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UCF
54%
46%
46
35
✓
LT −2.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
35%
65%
31
7
✗
UL −5.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Louisville
38%
62%
33
39
✓
LOU −4.3
–
–
Final
#16Marshall@Buffalo
99%
0.6%
59
3
✓
MRSH −40.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Maryland
37%
63%
7
45
✓
MD −5.0
–
–
Final
#15Miami (FL)@Boston College
79%
21%
31
28
✓
MIA −13.2
–
–
Final
LSU@#24Mississippi State
15%
85%
16
17
✓
MSST −16.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
50%
50%
31
24
✗
NCSU −0.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
21%
79%
7
50
✓
NIU −12.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
33%
67%
14
17
✓
OHIO −6.7
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@Minnesota
45%
55%
20
17
✗
MINN −1.6
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@OklahomaUpset
63%
37%
6
51
✗
TA&M −5.9
–
–
Final
#25Oregon@Arizona
58%
42%
44
41
✓
ORE −3.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon State
50%
50%
7
55
✓
UCLA −0.4
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@#13Purdue
47%
53%
31
25
✗
PUR −0.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
78%
22%
38
15
✓
PITT −12.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Rice
40%
60%
21
42
✓
RICE −3.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#17Southern Miss
9.5%
90%
20
28
✓
USM −20.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@#23USCUpset
21%
79%
35
31
✗
USC −12.2
–
–
Final
#8Tennessee@#22Alabama
55%
45%
21
7
✓
TENN −2.5
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@#19Texas
71%
29%
20
24
✗
NEB −9.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
69%
31%
35
7
✓
TTU −8.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
20%
80%
16
38
✓
UTAH −12.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
57%
43%
11
10
✓
VAN −3.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Wake Forest
37%
63%
3
47
✓
WAKE −4.7
–
–
Final
Washington@California
55%
45%
31
27
✓
WASH −2.6
–
–
Final
Temple@West Virginia
11%
89%
17
20
✓
WVU −19.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
8.6%
91%
0
28
✓
WMU −21.5
–
–
Final
#11Michigan State@#10Wisconsin
36%
64%
10
40
✓
WIS −5.0
–
–