The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 66

Wilder than 66% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockDuke over Virginia10% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upUNLV over Wyoming14% chance · won 35-32
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over San Diego State15% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Thu, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
71%
29%
52
59
✗
LOU −9.2
–
–
Final
80%
20%
24
17
✓
SYR −13.6
–
–

Sat, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 50 games

Final
73%
27%
19
14
✓
AF −9.9
–
–
Final
46%
54%
28
41
✓
AKR −1.6
–
–
Final
#15USC@ArizonaUpset
73%
27%
24
31
✗
USC −10.0
–
–
Final
1.8%
98%
6
58
✓
ARK −35.0
–
–
Final
15%
85%
28
38
✓
BYU −17.0
–
–
Final
79%
21%
38
19
✓
CMU −13.3
–
–
Final
39%
61%
39
46
✓
COLO −4.8
–
–
Final
10%
90%
24
17
✗
UVA −21.3
–
–
Final
76%
24%
31
10
✓
FLA −11.6
–
–
Final
19%
81%
21
31
✓
FSU −14.8
–
–
Final
65%
35%
13
44
✗
CSU −6.5
–
–
Final
11%
89%
24
31
✓
GT −20.5
–
–
Final
35%
65%
20
23
✓
HOU −6.6
–
–
Final
30%
70%
10
28
✓
Idaho −9.0
–
–
Final
39%
61%
17
34
✓
IU −4.6
–
–
Final
1.9%
98%
9
50
✓
KSU −34.4
–
–
Final
66%
34%
30
10
✓
UK −6.8
–
–
Final
45%
55%
17
14
✗
WAKE −2.0
–
–
Final
33%
67%
38
14
✗
UAB −7.6
–
–
Final
71%
29%
45
31
✓
M-OH −9.0
–
–
Final
45%
55%
31
34
✓
MSU −2.0
–
–
Final
36%
64%
13
20
✓
MISS −5.9
–
–
Final
55%
45%
18
16
✓
MSST −2.1
–
–
Final
3.8%
96%
14
49
✓
NEB −29.4
–
–
Final
32%
68%
23
16
✗
NMSU −7.7
–
–
Final
14%
86%
35
32
✗
WYO −18.1
–
–
Final
15%
85%
24
21
✗
SDSU −17.2
–
–
Final
52%
48%
31
35
✗
CLEM −0.9
–
–
Final
31%
69%
17
37
✓
NIU −8.4
–
–
Final
18%
82%
17
48
✓
ND −15.3
–
–
Final
41%
59%
22
25
✓
OSU −3.8
–
–
Final
32%
68%
21
41
✓
OKST −8.0
–
–
Final
87%
13%
31
7
✓
PSU −18.5
–
–
Final
66%
34%
38
19
✓
RICE −6.6
–
–
Final
51%
49%
39
22
✓
USM −0.2
–
–
Final
73%
27%
14
24
✗
BC −9.9
–
–
Final
19%
81%
20
37
✓
TENN −14.6
–
–
Final
30%
70%
28
38
✓
TEX −8.9
–
–
Final
2.5%
98%
13
45
✓
TA&M −32.6
–
–
Final
43%
57%
0
42
✓
TCU −3.0
–
–
Final
24%
76%
28
42
✓
UTEP −11.9
–
–
Final
11%
89%
7
47
✓
TOL −20.3
–
–
Final
#20Oregon@UCLAUpset
50%
50%
29
34
✓
UCLA −0.1
–
–
Final
2.4%
98%
0
42
✓
UTAH −32.8
–
–
Final
29%
71%
14
20
✓
USU −9.1
–
–
Final
97%
3.1%
58
20
✓
VT −30.9
–
–
Final
45%
55%
47
21
✗
ORST −2.1
–
–
Final
21%
79%
0
44
✓
WSU −13.7
–
–
Final
60%
40%
40
37
✓
WMU −4.2
–
–
Final
58%
42%
20
17
✓
WIS −3.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 9 · TBD Eastern Washington at Boise State Boise State −31.6 97%
Sat, Oct 9 · TBD The Citadel at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −26.7 95%