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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 96

Wilder than 96% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Texas over Texas Tech4.9% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Ole Miss13% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Wisconsin14% chance · won 17-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@BYU
51%
49%
13
34
✗
CSU −0.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Air Force@Washington
50%
50%
31
21
✗
WASH −0.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Akron
34%
66%
15
25
✓
AKR −6.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#16Arkansas
1.0%
99%
6
44
✓
ARK −38.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@LSUUpset
24%
76%
41
7
✗
LSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@Navy
54%
46%
14
10
✓
BC −1.4
–
–
Final
#15Wisconsin@CincinnatiUpset
86%
14%
12
17
✗
WIS −17.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Colorado
22%
78%
17
51
✓
COLO −13.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
52%
48%
21
3
✓
ECU −0.9
–
–
Final
#6Tennessee@#5Florida
37%
63%
21
23
✓
FLA −5.6
–
–
Final
NC State@#2Florida State
13%
87%
11
42
✓
FSU −18.7
–
–
Final
UCF@#12Georgia Tech
8.3%
92%
10
41
✓
GT −23.1
–
–
Final
Boise State@Hawaii
73%
27%
19
34
✗
BOIS −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Houston
12%
88%
0
45
✓
HOU −19.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@Idaho
43%
57%
17
28
✓
Idaho −3.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Louisville
32%
68%
41
36
✗
LOU −8.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Iowa
15%
85%
0
24
✓
IOWA −17.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@UNLV
31%
69%
24
0
✗
UNLV −8.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@#4Kansas State
2.9%
97%
7
40
✓
KSU −31.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
45%
55%
44
35
✗
IU −2.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@AlabamaUpset
19%
81%
29
28
✗
ALA −14.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Marshall
11%
89%
16
35
✓
MRSH −20.4
–
–
Final
#24West Virginia@MarylandUpset
66%
34%
0
33
✗
WVU −7.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
12%
88%
26
31
✓
MEM −19.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
5.2%
95%
14
35
✓
M-OH −27.1
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@#9Syracuse
32%
68%
18
13
✗
SYR −8.0
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@#18Notre Dame
35%
65%
23
13
✗
ND −6.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Mississippi State
45%
55%
11
29
✓
MSST −2.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Missouri
15%
85%
34
48
✓
MIZ −17.0
–
–
Final
#22Southern Miss@#1Nebraska
17%
83%
13
20
✓
NEB −15.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Arizona StateUpset
16%
84%
35
7
✗
ASU −16.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas TechUpset
4.9%
95%
21
14
✗
TTU −27.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
40%
60%
15
12
✗
DUKE −4.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@#3Ohio State
0.9%
99%
16
40
✓
OSU −39.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma
35%
65%
10
41
✓
OU −6.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@#25Oregon
15%
85%
10
72
✓
ORE −17.4
–
–
Final
#10Penn State@#7Miami (FL)
37%
63%
27
23
✗
MIA −5.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Pittsburgh
2.1%
98%
23
30
✓
PITT −33.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#8Purdue
2.2%
98%
16
58
✓
PUR −33.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#17USC
9.8%
90%
21
24
✓
USC −21.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@ArizonaUpset
24%
76%
50
22
✗
ARIZ −11.6
–
–
Final
Rice@#19Texas
6.7%
93%
13
18
✓
TEX −24.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#11Texas A&M
5.8%
94%
13
62
✓
TA&M −26.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
64%
36%
23
10
✓
TOL −6.0
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
11%
89%
28
48
✓
TULN −20.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#21UCLA
9.7%
90%
21
35
✓
UCLA −21.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
12%
88%
18
38
✓
UTAH −19.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole MissUpset
13%
87%
37
34
✗
MISS −19.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
30%
70%
7
35
✓
UVA −8.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Buffalo at UConn UConn −3.4 58%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Wofford at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Illinois State at Minnesota Minnesota −50.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Northern Arizona at New Mexico New Mexico −18.0 86%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Georgia Southern at Oregon State Oregon State −29.4 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Saint Mary's (CA) at San Jose State San Jose State −17.5 85%