The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1999

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockBoise State over Utah9.2% chance · won 26-20
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Texas A&M12% chance · won 21-19
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Stanford17% chance · won 44-39

Upsets

Thu, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Maryland@#6Georgia Tech
14%
86%
31
49
✓
GT −18.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BYU@Utah State
78%
22%
34
31
✓
BYU −12.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Air Force@San Diego State
55%
45%
23
22
✓
AF −1.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Ball State
54%
46%
31
9
✓
AKR −1.7
–
–
Final
Alabama@#3FloridaUpset
18%
82%
40
39
✗
FLA −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UAB
10%
90%
0
47
✓
UAB −21.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@Arizona State
67%
33%
27
28
✗
UCLA −7.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Baylor
32%
68%
10
23
✓
BAY −7.6
–
–
Final
#21Utah@Boise StateUpset
91%
9.2%
20
26
✗
UTAH −22.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
65%
35%
23
34
✗
TOL −6.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Clemson
39%
61%
20
31
✓
CLEM −4.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Colorado State
25%
75%
7
46
✓
CSU −11.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Army
72%
28%
33
14
✓
ECU −9.7
–
–
Final
Duke@#1Florida State
0.8%
99%
23
51
✓
FSU −40.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Fresno State
36%
64%
19
26
✓
FRES −5.8
–
–
Final
LSU@Georgia
30%
70%
22
23
✓
UGA −8.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@HawaiiUpset
76%
24%
3
33
✗
UTEP −11.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
64%
36%
31
34
✗
ILL −5.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Kansas
34%
66%
9
27
✓
KU −6.8
–
–
Final
#5Kansas State@#16Texas
54%
46%
35
17
✓
KSU −1.5
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@KentuckyUpset
73%
27%
20
31
✗
ARK −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana
86%
14%
41
31
✓
LT −18.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Louisville
22%
78%
10
45
✓
LOU −13.1
–
–
Final
#24Marshall@Miami (OH)
48%
52%
32
14
✗
M-OH −1.1
–
–
Final
#12Purdue@#11Michigan
41%
59%
12
38
✓
MICH −3.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#9Michigan State
7.4%
93%
3
49
✓
MSU −24.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
61%
39%
33
14
✓
MINN −4.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@South Carolina
68%
32%
36
10
✓
MISS −7.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
42
14
✓
MSST −9.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Memphis
55%
45%
27
17
✓
MIZ −2.0
–
–
Final
Navy@West VirginiaUpset
21%
79%
31
28
✗
WVU −13.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Nebraska
7.3%
93%
14
38
✓
NEB −24.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
40%
60%
12
26
✓
NEV −4.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Buffalo
66%
34%
45
21
✓
NIU −6.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@#22Notre Dame
32%
68%
30
34
✓
ND −8.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
23%
77%
3
31
✓
OHIO −12.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Pittsburgh
16%
84%
24
55
✓
PITT −16.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulsa
59%
41%
20
10
✓
RICE −3.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@StanfordUpset
17%
83%
44
39
✗
STAN −15.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#18USC
23%
77%
29
37
✓
USC −12.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@#10Syracuse
21%
79%
17
47
✓
SYR −13.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@#14Tennessee
21%
78%
0
24
✓
TENN −13.2
–
–
Final
#4Texas A&M@Texas TechUpset
88%
12%
19
21
✗
TA&M −19.6
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@#23Virginia
58%
42%
31
7
✓
VT −3.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Wake Forest
11%
89%
10
17
✓
WAKE −20.6
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@WashingtonUpset
68%
32%
20
34
✗
ORE −7.8
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
64%
36%
7
31
✗
CAL −5.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
31%
69%
16
38
✓
WMU −8.5
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@#7Ohio StateUpset
24%
76%
42
17
✗
OSU −11.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Wyoming
19%
81%
13
28
✓
WYO −14.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Sam Houston at Arkansas State Arkansas State −9.9 72%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Northeastern at Boston College Boston College −27.1 95%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Eastern Illinois at UCF UCF −29.4 96%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Troy at Middle Tennessee Troy −6.6 66%