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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 16 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 46

Wilder than 46% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 4.0 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Carolina over Tulsa21% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upBuffalo over Ball State22% chance · won 42-24
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over UConn39% chance · won 34-10

Upsets

Thu, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Rutgers
19%
81%
14
63
✓
RUTG −13.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
40%
60%
28
42
✓
UL −3.4
–
–

Fri, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#19Ball StatevsBuffaloUpset
78%
22%
24
42
✗
BALL −13.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Pittsburgh@UConn
39%
61%
34
10
✗
CONN −3.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#23TulsaUpset
21%
79%
27
24
✗
TLSA −12.2
–
–
Final
NavyvsArmy
81%
19%
34
0
✓
NAVY −14.6
–
–
Final
Boston CollegevsVirginia Tech
56%
44%
12
30
✗
BC −2.8
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
Washington@#16California
3.4%
97%
7
48
✓
CAL −28.9
–
–
Final
#8Alabamavs#1Florida
22%
78%
20
31
✓
FLA −11.9
–
–
Final
#3USC@UCLA
96%
3.8%
28
7
✓
USC −28.7
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Arizona State@#20Arizona
24%
76%
10
31
✓
ARIZ −10.7
–
–
Final
#9Missourivs#2Oklahoma
23%
77%
21
62
✓
OU −11.1
–
–
Final
USF@#21West Virginia
33%
67%
7
13
✓
WVU −6.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Hawaii
65%
35%
29
24
✓
CIN −6.5
–
–

Sun, Dec 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
30%
70%
3
27
✓
FIU −7.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Troy
20%
80%
9
35
✓
TROY −12.7
–
–