The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 40

Wilder than 40% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArkansas over Auburn11% chance · won 25-22
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Nevada21% chance · won 48-45
  • Runner-upToledo over Michigan21% chance · won 13-10

Upsets

Wed, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Troy@Florida Atlantic
64%
36%
30
17
✓
TROY −5.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
32%
68%
7
12
✓
WAKE −7.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UAB@Houston
12%
88%
20
45
✓
HOU −19.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Toledo@MichiganUpset
21%
79%
13
10
✗
MICH −13.4
–
–
Final
#3Texasvs#2Oklahoma
47%
53%
45
35
✗
OU −1.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Virginia
58%
42%
20
35
✗
ECU −3.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West Virginia
7.4%
93%
6
17
✓
WVU −24.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
36%
64%
27
20
✗
ILL −6.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Cincinnati
24%
76%
10
13
✓
CIN −12.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
64%
36%
45
9
✓
IOWA −5.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#20KentuckyUpset
28%
72%
24
17
✗
UK −9.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#17Kansas
15%
85%
14
30
✓
KU −17.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Army
35%
65%
13
17
✓
ARMY −6.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
87%
13%
40
7
✓
UTAH −18.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas A&M
53%
47%
44
30
✓
KSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State
66%
34%
14
17
✗
VAN −6.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
56%
44%
26
19
✓
OHIO −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Nebraska@#8Texas Tech
19%
81%
31
37
✓
TTU −14.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#1USC
6.4%
94%
0
28
✓
USC −25.3
–
–
Final
#13TCU@Colorado State
84%
16%
13
7
✓
TCU −16.7
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#11Georgia
22%
78%
14
26
✓
UGA −12.6
–
–
Final
#25Michigan State@Northwestern
60%
40%
37
20
✓
MSU −4.2
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@North Carolina
32%
68%
24
29
✓
UNC −7.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@#19Ohio State
20%
80%
3
16
✓
OSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
42%
58%
34
28
✗
BUF −3.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Miami (FL)
20%
80%
14
20
✓
MIA −13.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@NevadaUpset
21%
79%
48
45
✗
NEV −13.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois
18%
82%
13
17
✓
NIU −15.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Central Michigan
46%
54%
14
24
✓
CMU −1.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@AuburnUpset
11%
89%
25
22
✗
AUB −20.4
–
–
Final
#23Arizona@StanfordUpset
69%
31%
23
24
✗
ARIZ −8.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#14BYU
15%
85%
3
21
✓
BYU −17.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
44%
56%
37
33
✗
AKR −2.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
5.1%
95%
13
66
✓
ORST −27.3
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#22Ball State@Western Kentucky
89%
11%
24
7
✓
BALL −19.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@North Texas
82%
18%
59
30
✓
UL −15.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
22%
78%
29
37
✓
ARST −12.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
57%
43%
21
31
✗
MTSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Baylor
49%
51%
10
38
✓
BAY −0.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
27%
73%
7
30
✓
SJSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@UTEP
28%
72%
21
24
✓
UTEP −9.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
80%
20%
35
10
✓
AF −13.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Idaho@Fresno State
0.7%
99%
32
45
✓
FRES −40.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@#12Oregon
13%
87%
24
31
✓
ORE −18.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisville@Memphis
59%
41%
35
28
✓
LOU −3.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Hawaii
24%
76%
14
24
✓
HAW −11.7
–
–

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#9LSU@#5Florida
33%
67%
21
51
✓
FLA −7.6
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@#6Missouri
35%
65%
28
23
✗
MIZ −6.6
–
–
Final
#4Penn State@Wisconsin
69%
31%
48
7
✓
PSU −8.2
–
–
Final
#16Tulsa@SMU
93%
6.9%
37
31
✓
TLSA −24.6
–
–
Final
#21Boise State@Southern Miss
70%
30%
24
7
✓
BOIS −8.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 11 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at #18 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −39.8 99%