The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockOle Miss over Florida4.2% chance · won 31-30
  • Runner-upFIU over Toledo12% chance · won 35-16
  • Runner-upNavy over Wake Forest15% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1USC@Oregon StateUpset
79%
21%
21
27
✗
USC −13.1
–
–

Fri, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
SMU@Tulane
18%
82%
27
34
✓
TULN −15.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Michigan State@Indiana
68%
32%
42
29
✓
MSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
30%
70%
3
31
✓
DUKE −8.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
73%
27%
34
24
✓
PITT −10.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#23Ohio State
24%
76%
21
34
✓
OSU −12.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
36%
64%
20
17
✗
CLEM −6.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
6.0%
94%
20
41
✓
BALL −25.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
58%
42%
37
0
✓
NIU −3.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
30%
70%
22
17
✗
IOWA −8.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Miami (FL)
31%
69%
28
24
✗
MIA −8.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#2FloridaUpset
4.2%
96%
31
30
✗
FLA −28.7
–
–
Final
Army@Texas A&M
6.5%
94%
17
21
✓
TA&M −25.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Temple
41%
59%
7
3
✗
TEM −4.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
62%
38%
17
29
✗
ARST −4.8
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Tennessee@#24Auburn
30%
70%
12
14
✓
AUB −8.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UCLA
60%
40%
36
31
✓
FRES −4.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Florida State
38%
62%
21
39
✓
FSU −5.2
–
–
Final
#18Wisconsin@MichiganUpset
61%
39%
25
27
✗
WIS −4.6
–
–
Final
Houston@East Carolina
31%
69%
41
24
✗
ECU −8.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#6Texas
4.7%
95%
10
52
✓
TEX −27.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@West Virginia
16%
84%
3
27
✓
WVU −16.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Akron
64%
36%
17
15
✓
CIN −5.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Kansas State
13%
87%
37
45
✓
KSU −18.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Notre Dame
46%
54%
21
38
✓
ND −1.9
–
–
Final
Navy@#21Wake ForestUpset
15%
85%
24
17
✗
WAKE −17.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Central Michigan
41%
59%
25
27
✓
CMU −3.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Wyoming
47%
53%
45
16
✗
WYO −1.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Rice
17%
83%
20
77
✓
RICE −15.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#19California
9.3%
91%
7
42
✓
CAL −22.0
–
–
Final
#10Oregon@Washington State
91%
9.4%
63
14
✓
ORE −21.7
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Kentucky
7.0%
93%
3
41
✓
UK −24.6
–
–
Final
#11TCU@#4Oklahoma
28%
72%
10
35
✓
OU −9.6
–
–
Final
UAB@South Carolina
10%
90%
13
26
✓
SC −21.0
–
–
Final
Troy@#14Oklahoma State
22%
78%
24
55
✓
OKST −12.9
–
–
Final
FIU@ToledoUpset
12%
88%
35
16
✗
TOL −19.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#5LSU
4.9%
95%
24
34
✓
LSU −27.5
–
–
Final
#25USF@NC State
79%
21%
41
10
✓
USF −13.5
–
–
Final
#8Alabama@#7Georgia
37%
63%
41
30
✗
UGA −5.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Diego State
7.7%
92%
17
45
✓
SDSU −23.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Stanford@Washington
42%
58%
35
28
✗
WASH −3.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
32%
68%
49
27
✗
UNLV −7.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@Louisville
53%
47%
26
21
✓
CONN −1.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@HawaiiUpset
25%
75%
20
17
✗
HAW −11.5
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Virginia Tech@Nebraska
35%
65%
35
30
✗
NEB −6.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
57%
43%
35
24
✓
UNM −2.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#3Penn State
7.7%
92%
24
38
✓
PSU −23.8
–
–
Final
UCF@UTEP
63%
37%
13
58
✗
UCF −5.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET Rhode Island at #20 Boston College Boston College −43.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 27 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State vs Rutgers Rutgers −17.0 84%
Sat, Sep 27 · 2:00 PM ET VMI at Ohio Ohio −20.8 89%
Sat, Sep 27 · 7:05 PM ET Central Arkansas at #16 Tulsa Tulsa −43.5 >99%
Sun, Sep 28 · TBD Weber State at #12 Utah Utah −59.9 >99%