The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Texas over Western Kentucky15% chance · won 51-40
  • Runner-upArkansas over Tulsa19% chance · won 30-23
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Louisville21% chance · won 28-21

Upsets

Tue, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Ohio
47%
53%
32
19
✗
OHIO −0.8
–
–

Wed, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Houston@MarshallUpset
76%
24%
23
37
✗
HOU −12.0
–
–

Thu, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22USF@CincinnatiUpset
55%
45%
10
24
✗
USF −2.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
West Virginia@UConn
40%
60%
35
13
✗
CONN −3.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Indiana
53%
47%
37
34
✓
CMU −1.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Michigan State
32%
68%
24
25
✓
MSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
33%
67%
24
17
✗
MINN −6.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia
55%
45%
24
17
✓
MIA −2.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
81%
19%
16
7
✓
AF −14.7
–
–
Final
Michigan@Purdue
37%
63%
42
48
✓
PUR −4.7
–
–
Final
Auburn@Ole Miss
47%
53%
7
17
✓
MISS −0.7
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
27%
73%
21
52
✓
KU −9.5
–
–
Final
#14Tulsa@ArkansasUpset
82%
18%
23
30
✗
TLSA −14.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
25%
75%
30
45
✓
BGSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
13%
87%
10
31
✓
WMU −17.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
39%
61%
10
35
✓
WYO −4.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Texas A&M
39%
61%
17
24
✓
TA&M −3.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
67%
33%
14
13
✓
UK −7.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Louisiana Tech
67%
33%
35
38
✗
FRES −7.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Notre Dame
37%
63%
36
33
✗
ND −4.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#8Missouri@Baylor
89%
11%
31
28
✓
MIZ −19.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah StateUpset
77%
23%
14
30
✗
HAW −12.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#10Alabama
6.7%
93%
0
35
✓
ALA −23.6
–
–
Final
#12Oregon@#19California
49%
51%
16
26
✓
ORE −0.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@Georgia Tech
39%
61%
28
31
✓
GT −4.0
–
–
Final
#2Floridavs#9Georgia
72%
28%
49
10
✓
FLA −9.9
–
–
Final
Clemson@Boston College
33%
67%
27
21
✗
BC −6.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
27%
73%
30
33
✓
WAKE −9.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7Oklahoma State
2.4%
98%
17
59
✓
OKST −31.4
–
–
Final
#24Iowa@IllinoisUpset
48%
52%
24
27
✓
ILL −0.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
29%
72%
27
33
✓
NAVY −8.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Western KentuckyUpset
15%
85%
51
40
✗
WKU −15.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
9.7%
90%
0
58
✓
STAN −20.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Idaho
92%
8.1%
30
24
✓
SJSU −22.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana
29%
71%
20
49
✓
UL −8.4
–
–
Final
#23BYU@Colorado State
79%
21%
45
42
✓
BYU −13.6
–
–
Final
Washington@#1USC
0.6%
99%
0
56
✓
USC −39.8
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#15Boise State@New Mexico State
93%
7.2%
49
0
✓
BOIS −23.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@SyracuseUpset
79%
21%
21
28
✗
LOU −13.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
78%
22%
30
31
✗
TROY −12.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@South Carolina
41%
59%
6
27
✓
SC −3.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
21%
79%
14
70
✓
USM −12.2
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
54%
46%
49
44
✓
RICE −2.2
–
–
Final
#18Utah@New Mexico
69%
31%
13
10
✓
UTAH −8.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona State@#16Oregon State
15%
85%
25
27
✓
ORST −16.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
East Carolina@UCF
61%
39%
13
10
✓
ECU −5.0
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Tulane@#17LSU
4.0%
96%
10
35
✓
LSU −27.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#5Oklahoma
12%
88%
28
62
✓
OU −18.3
–
–
Final
#11TCU@UNLV
89%
11%
44
14
✓
TCU −19.8
–
–
Final
#3Texas@#6Texas Tech
54%
46%
33
39
✗
TEX −2.0
–
–