The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 57

Wilder than 57% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Michigan over Bowling Green9.6% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upArmy over Tulane14% chance · won 44-13
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over USF18% chance · won 26-21

Upsets

Wed, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
33%
67%
13
14
✓
MTSU −7.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Pittsburgh@#17USFUpset
18%
82%
26
21
✗
USF −15.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Utah
38%
62%
28
31
✓
UTAH −5.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@#24Boise State
9.7%
90%
3
38
✓
BOIS −21.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@UAB
54%
46%
33
30
✓
MEM −1.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Duke@#22Georgia Tech
21%
79%
0
27
✓
GT −13.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@#21Michigan State
28%
72%
13
16
✓
MSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Minnesota
26%
74%
7
16
✓
MINN −10.5
–
–
Final
#25Boston College@NC State
84%
16%
38
31
✓
BC −16.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@West Virginia
23%
77%
17
24
✓
WVU −12.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
64%
36%
30
27
✓
AKR −6.0
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Purdue
82%
18%
20
6
✓
PSU −15.1
–
–
Final
#5Florida@Arkansas
91%
9.0%
38
7
✓
FLA −22.2
–
–
Final
#13Kansas@Iowa State
79%
21%
35
33
✓
KU −13.3
–
–
Final
#1Oklahoma@Baylor
90%
9.5%
49
17
✓
OU −21.6
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Virginia Tech
6.6%
93%
13
27
✓
VT −25.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
43%
57%
28
41
✓
CSU −3.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Ole Miss
46%
54%
31
24
✗
MISS −1.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
38%
62%
20
41
✓
WMU −5.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Notre Dame
32%
68%
21
28
✓
ND −7.8
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Army@TulaneUpset
14%
86%
44
13
✗
TULN −18.2
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#14California
19%
81%
14
24
✓
CAL −14.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan
36%
64%
45
20
✗
MICH −6.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Miami (OH)
53%
46%
28
10
✓
TEM −1.4
–
–
Final
#19Kentucky@#8Alabama
28%
72%
14
17
✓
ALA −10.0
–
–
Final
SMU@UCF
27%
73%
17
31
✓
UCF −10.2
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@Kansas State
63%
37%
58
28
✓
TTU −5.5
–
–
Final
Florida State@Miami (FL)
43%
57%
41
39
✗
MIA −2.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
9.6%
90%
24
21
✗
BGSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
29%
71%
33
27
✗
AF −9.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@Idaho
95%
5.1%
49
14
✓
NEV −27.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@Vanderbilt
45%
55%
13
14
✓
VAN −2.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#16TCU
4.8%
95%
7
41
✓
TCU −27.7
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
UConn@North Carolina
48%
52%
12
38
✓
UNC −1.0
–
–
Final
FIU@North Texas
59%
41%
42
10
✓
FIU −3.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@VirginiaUpset
75%
25%
0
31
✗
MD −11.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
46%
54%
44
35
✗
ULM −1.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Southern Miss
27%
73%
40
37
✗
USM −10.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Tennessee
23%
77%
9
13
✓
TENN −12.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#9Oklahoma State
8.5%
92%
28
56
✓
OKST −22.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
79%
21%
31
0
✓
BALL −13.1
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Colorado
86%
14%
38
14
✓
TEX −18.1
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona
18%
82%
14
48
✓
ARIZ −15.5
–
–
Final
#10Missouri@Nebraska
60%
40%
52
17
✓
MIZ −3.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
26%
74%
0
24
✓
UNM −11.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Hawaii@Fresno StateUpset
22%
78%
32
29
✗
FRES −12.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@UCLA
21%
79%
3
28
✓
UCLA −13.4
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Cincinnati@Marshall
71%
29%
33
10
✓
CIN −9.1
–
–
Final
#15BYU@Utah State
93%
7.2%
34
14
✓
BYU −24.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#7Oregon@#4USC
35%
65%
10
44
✓
USC −6.7
–
–
Final
Rice@#20Tulsa
17%
83%
28
63
✓
TLSA −15.8
–
–
Final
#23Ohio State@#18Wisconsin
40%
60%
20
17
✗
WIS −4.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 4 · 1:30 PM ET Alcorn State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −30.7 97%